Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/29 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 20.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 6.24 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Lockheed Martin is anticipated to deliver a beat in revenue driven by strong missile and F-35 program momentum, although EPS may remain neutral due to reinvestment and pension cost pressures.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification:
Key Fact Data Insights:
- Operational Momentum in Missiles & F-35 Programs:
- Lockheed secured a seven-year PAC-3 missile production agreement with the U.S. Department of War, increasing annual capacity from 600 to 2,000 interceptors by
- This directly addresses the backlog growth question and signals strong future revenue recognition.
- F-35 deliveries are progressing, with Lot 20/21 production contracts ($ 1.14B modification) and completed F-16 Block70 orders for Bulgaria/Slovakia, supporting near-term sales growth.
- Defense Budget Tailwinds vs. Cash Flow Risks:
Trump’s proposed $ 1.5T military budget for 2027 (up 50% from $1T) signals long-term demand for defense systems (PAC-3, F-35, Next Generation Interceptor).
However, Trump’s executive order restricting dividends/buybacks until “military equipment is built faster” could pressure short-term free cash flow (FCF) returns to shareholders. Analysts like JPMorgan already flagged cash flow risks.
- Analyst Upgrades vs. Downgrades:
Truist upgraded LMT (to Buy, PT $605) citing “double-digit growth in missiles/fire control” and fading DOGE concerns.
JPMorgan/Morgan Stanley downgraded (to Neutral/Equal Weight) over cash flow pessimism and pension headwinds.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy:
- Options Play: Buy Jan 2026 $520 calls (volatility hedge ahead of earnings) and sell $550 calls (capping upside due to cash flow risks).
- Stock Pair: Long LMT vs. short RTX (RTX has Pratt & Whitney engine liability, while LMT’s missile/F-35 momentum is cleaner).
- Dividend Caution: Avoid long-term holds until clarity on Trump’s buyback/dividend policy.
Rationale: Revenue momentum from missiles/F-35 likely drives a beat, but cash flow constraints limit EPS upside. The stock’s 6% outperformance vs. S&P 500 since last earnings raises the bar, but operational execution and budget tailwinds support a moderate beat.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
LMT Transcript
The earnings call summary and Q&A session indicate positive sentiment. Lockheed Martin reaffirmed strong financial guidance, highlighted growth in key programs like F-35 and hypersonics, and maintained a stable free cash flow outlook. The Q&A revealed increased confidence in supply chain capabilities and potential revenue upside in munitions and Golden Dome. Despite some guidance reduction due to CH-53K volumes, management anticipates recovery and growth. Overall, the company's strategic positioning and optimistic outlook suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: positive growth in segments like Missiles and Space, but challenges in Rotary and Mission Systems. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in the Aero Classified program, with significant charges and unclear cash flow timing. Despite optimistic guidance and shareholder returns, concerns over program risks and tax liabilities dampen sentiment. The lack of market cap data prevents precise assessment, but overall, the mixed performance and uncertainties suggest a neutral stock reaction.
LMT Slides
LMT Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 29, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 20.00B in revenue and an EPS of 6.00 for Lockheed Martin Corp's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forLockheed Martin Corp's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 29, 2026. Lockheed Martin Corp Lockheed Martin is anticipated to deliver a beat in revenue driven by strong missile and F-35 program momentum, although EPS may remain neutral due to reinvestment and pension cost pressures.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade LMT Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 29, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
