Home Depot Inc (HD) FY2026Q3 Earning Prediction
Home Depot Inc (HD) is set to release its FY2026Q3 earnings performance on 11/18 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 41.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.81 for the FY2026Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a miss due to slowing sales growth, margin pressures, and inventory risks.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Analysis
- Sales Growth Headwinds:
Truist Card Data indicates sales slowed in late Q3 (mid-September/October), coinciding with tougher comparisons and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Hurricane Season Impact: Bernstein notes the lack of a strong hurricane season creates a ~55bps headwind to comp sales. Historically, storms drive emergency repairs, a key revenue driver for HD.
- Margin Pressures:
Tariff Increases: Trump’s 10-50% tariffs on lumber, cabinets, and furniture (effective October 2025) likely increased input costs for HD, pressuring gross margins unless fully passed to consumers.
Operating Expenses: Acquisitions (GMS Inc.) and partnerships (Ecolab, ServiceTitan) may have increased near-term integration costs, offsetting potential long-term efficiencies.
- Inventory Risks:
- GMS acquisition adds specialty building products to inventory, but recent tariff announcements (e.g., kitchen cabinets) could lead to unsold stock if demand weakens.
- Mixed Analyst Signals:
Bearish: Stifel downgrade and JPMorgan’s reduced Q3 comp sales forecast reflect caution.
Bullish: Wolfe Research cites improving summer demand and investor day catalyst, but these are forward-looking and unlikely to materially impact Q3 results.
Consensus Context
- Stock price has underperformed S&P 500 (- 7.2% vs. + 7.4%), implying low expectations. However, Fact Data shows downside risks to margins and comp sales that consensus may not fully price (e.g., tariffs, late-quarter slowdown).
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Bearish Hedge: Buy Nov 2025 $360 puts to capitalize on downside from tariff impacts and comp slowdown.
- Volatility Play: Sell Nov 2025 $380 calls; muted upside catalysts likely keep shares range-bound.
- Pairs Trade: Short HD vs. Long LOW (Lowe’s), which Bernstein notes faces smaller hurricane-related headwinds (-100bps vs. HD’s -55bps).
Rationale: Tariffs and slowing late-quarter comps create asymmetric downside risk, while upside appears limited by margin pressures.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
HD Transcript
The earnings call reflects a negative sentiment due to several factors: softer-than-expected results, increased capital expenditures, and challenges in demand recovery without housing activity or interest rate reductions. The Q&A session highlighted concerns about EBIT shortfall, lack of storm activity impacting sales, and unclear management responses on margin improvement. Despite some positive initiatives, the overall outlook appears cautious with pressures from consumer uncertainty and supply chain issues, leading to a negative prediction for the stock price movement.
The earnings call summary presents mixed signals. Financial performance shows modest growth, but operating margins declined due to increased expenses and market pressures. The GMS acquisition is promising, yet its immediate impact is negative on margins. The Q&A reveals concerns about consumer uncertainty and lack of storm activity affecting sales. However, there are positive aspects like dividend payments and potential long-term benefits from GMS synergies. The overall sentiment is neutral as positive and negative factors balance out, indicating limited stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive signs such as a slight sales growth and strategic acquisitions, the flat gross margin and decline in EPS are concerning. The Q&A reveals optimism about tax reforms and rate cuts but also highlights economic uncertainties. The lack of clear guidance on large projects and the impact of reduced promotions adds ambiguity. The overall sentiment is neutral, as positive developments are balanced by financial constraints and uncertain economic conditions.
HD Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Home Depot Inc FY2026Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Home Depot Inc (HD) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q3 earnings report onNov 18, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Home Depot Inc FY2026Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 41.00B in revenue and an EPS of 4.00 for Home Depot Inc's FY2026Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Home Depot Inc FY2026Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forHome Depot Inc's FY2026Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 18, 2025. Home Depot Inc The earnings forecast suggests a miss due to slowing sales growth, margin pressures, and inventory risks.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade HD Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 18, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Home Depot Inc FY2026Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
