Fastenal Co (FAST) FY2025Q1 Earning Prediction

04/11 04:00:00

Pre-Market

Fastenal Co (FAST) is set to release its FY2025Q1 earnings performance on 04/11 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.95B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.52 for the FY2025Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueBEAT

1.95B

1.96B

+0.44%

EPS-

0.52

0.00%

AI Summary

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AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q1

Earnings Date: Apr 11, 2025

The earnings forecast suggests a neutral outcome, with expected revenue and EPS aligning with consensus.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

3 beats2 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

10%

+3-5%

March daily sales surge >10%, gross margin expands

Beat

30%

+1-3%

March sales exceed $660M, EPS beats by >2%

Neutral

50%

Flat

Revenue/EPS meet consensus within 1% variance

Miss

-2-4%

March sales <$630M, margin contraction

Strong Miss

-5-7%

Macro shock or inventory write-downs

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

In-Line

Jan-Feb sales imply ~$1.93B for Q1 if March mirrors trends; consensus is $1.95B. Daily sales growth offset by flat net sales in February.

EPS

In-Line

Stable gross margins and cost management offset lack of revenue upside.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

Revenue Growth (Core Metric):

Fact Data: February net sales were flat YoY ($ 627.12M), but daily sales grew 5%. January sales rose 1.9% ($ 652.24M). Cumulative sales for Jan-Feb total ~$ 1.28B, suggesting Q1 revenue near consensus ($ 1.95B) if March mirrors January/February trends. However, flat February net sales despite daily growth imply pricing/mix challenges. Analysts highlight Fastenal as a "defensive play" with market share gains, but Stifel notes timing for macro recovery remains uncertain.
Conclusion: Revenue likely meets consensus but lacks catalysts for a significant beat.

Gross Margin (Core Metric):

Fact Data: No explicit mentions of material cost reductions or supply chain efficiency improvements. Rising costs and stable margins were flagged in Q

Analyst upgrades (Wolfe, William Blair) cite positioning for short-cycle recovery but do not address margin drivers.

Conclusion: Margin stability likely priced in; no evidence of material upside.

Operating Income & Net Income:

Fact Data: Management emphasizes cost controls and operational efficiencies, but February’s flat net sales suggest limited operating leverage. Stifel’s lowered price target reflects skepticism about near-term acceleration.
Conclusion: Income growth likely aligns with consensus, balancing modest sales growth and expense discipline.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Options Play (Neutral Outlook):
- Sell out-of-the-money strangle (e.g., $80 call / $72 put) to capitalize on low volatility and range-bound price action.
- Hedge with a long straddle if March sales data (not yet reported) shows extreme volatility risk.
Directional Bias (Cautious Optimism):
- Buy April $77.50 calls if betting on modest Beat (low-cost leverage to upside surprise).
Defensive Hedge:
- Pair FAST with short industrial ETFs (e.g., XLI) to isolate company-specific alpha.

Rationale: Neutral outlook reflects balanced risks, but skewed probabilities toward Beat/Neutral scenarios justify limited upside optionality.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

FAST Transcript

Fastenal Company (FAST) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-13

The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with record revenue and sales growth, supported by effective strategies and market share gains. Despite some market uncertainties, the company remains optimistic about future demand and plans further pricing actions. The Q&A section highlighted concerns about expenses and market conditions, but management's strategies, such as fastener initiatives, are expected to enhance margins. Overall, the positive outlook, coupled with improved margins and EPS growth, suggests a positive stock price movement in the short term.

Fastenal Company (FAST) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive7-14

The earnings call summary indicates a generally positive outlook, with strong digital sales growth, confidence in double-digit sales growth, and strategic enhancements to e-commerce. Although there are concerns about flat gross margins and increased inventory costs, the company's strategy to manage these through improved supply chain and customer engagement is promising. The Q&A section supports this positive sentiment, with management showing confidence in their growth strategies and ability to capture additional business. Overall, these factors suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.

Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Unknown4-12

The earnings call presents a mixed picture: while Fastenal anticipates revenue growth and has increased dividends, operating margins and gross margins have declined. The Q&A reveals concerns about tariffs and supply chain issues, with management providing unclear responses. The dividend increase is a positive, but the lack of a share repurchase program and flat EPS year-over-year are drawbacks. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with no strong positive or negative catalysts to predict significant stock movement.

Earnings call transcript: Fastenal’s Q1 2025 results steady, stock surges

Unknown4-11

The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. Financial performance shows modest growth in sales but flat EPS and declining margins, indicating operational challenges. The dividend increase is a positive sign, yet there's no share repurchase program. The Q&A session reveals concerns about tariffs and vague management responses, adding uncertainty. Despite stable revenue expectations and capex plans, the lack of clear guidance on tariffs and operational issues tempers optimism. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with no strong catalysts for significant stock movement.

FAST Slides

Fastenal Q2 2025 slides: Sales growth accelerates to 8.6%, EPS jumps 12.7%

2025-07-14

Fastenal Q3 2025 slides: 11.7% sales growth, margins expand, shares fall

2025-10-13

FAST Report

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fastenal Co FY2025Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Fastenal Co (FAST) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q1 earnings report onApr 11, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Fastenal Co FY2025Q1 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 1.95B in revenue and an EPS of 0.52 for Fastenal Co's FY2025Q1.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Fastenal Co FY2025Q1 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forFastenal Co's FY2025Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Apr 11, 2025. Fastenal Co The earnings forecast suggests a neutral outcome, with expected revenue and EPS aligning with consensus.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade FAST Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theApr 11, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Fastenal Co FY2025Q1?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!