Blackstone Inc (BX) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Blackstone Inc (BX) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/29 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 4.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.52 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Blackstone is expected to underperform due to real estate regulatory risks and other headwinds, despite diversification efforts.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Negative Catalysts from Fact Data:
- Regulatory/Political Risks in Real Estate:
Trump's proposed ban on institutional homebuyers directly threatens Blackstone’s single-family home investments, a core AUM growth driver. This could stall new acquisitions (hurting Fee-Earning AUM growth) and trigger asset sales, pressuring realizations and margins.
DOJ antitrust consent decree against LivCor (a BX portfolio company) restricts algorithmic pricing practices, potentially reducing rental income and FRE margins in real estate.
- Segment-Specific Headwinds:
Infrastructure/credit growth (e.g., Willis Lease partnership, energy transition deals) is offset by weakness in corporate private equity due to slowing real estate appreciation and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Analyst skepticism (Wells Fargo downgrade, UBS Neutral rating) highlights risks to earnings from slower wealth channel flows and valuation pressures.
Key Positive Catalysts from Fact Data:
- Strategic Partnerships & Acquisitions:
$1B loan acquisition with Harvest Commercial Capital and $5B Phoenix Financial partnership support growth in fee-earning AUM for credit strategies.
MacLean Power Systems acquisition strengthens infrastructure exposure, aligning with grid-hardening trends.
- Diversification Efforts:
- Expansion into AI/data centers (e.g., DTCC’s tokenization project, Hut 8 AI pivot) and energy transition (Wolf Summit Energy) diversifies revenue streams.
Balanced View: While Blackstone is offsetting real estate risks via infrastructure/credit growth, the sheer scale of its real estate exposure (~30% of AUM) and immediate policy/regulatory headwinds create downside risks to consensus expectations.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short Stock/Buy Puts: Target downside to $145 (6% drop) if real estate headwinds materialize.
- Pairs Trade: Short BX vs. infrastructure-focused peers (e.g., Brookfield Asset Management).
- Options Play: Buy Jan 2026 $150 puts for downside protection.
Rationale: Blackstone’s near-term risks (policy/regulatory) outweigh its diversification efforts, creating asymmetric downside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
BX Transcript
The earnings call summary presents a generally positive outlook with strong growth prospects in multiple sectors, optimistic guidance, and strategic expansions. The Q&A section reaffirms these prospects, with management addressing concerns and providing optimistic projections for fee growth, margin expansion, and market opportunities. Despite some unclear responses, the overall sentiment remains positive, supported by anticipated product launches and market recoveries. These factors, combined with a focus on infrastructure and energy investments, suggest a likely positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call and Q&A reveal strong financial performance, strategic partnerships, and growth plans. Despite some concerns, such as the BCRED dividend cut, management's responses indicate resilience and optimism. The positive outlook for fee-related earnings, M&A activity, and real estate recovery support a positive sentiment. The new partnership with Legal & General and the focus on private wealth and defined contribution plans further strengthen the growth narrative. Overall, the sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely stock price increase over the next two weeks.
BX Slides
BX Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Blackstone Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Blackstone Inc (BX) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 29, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Blackstone Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 4.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for Blackstone Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Blackstone Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forBlackstone Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 29, 2026. Blackstone Inc Blackstone is expected to underperform due to real estate regulatory risks and other headwinds, despite diversification efforts.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade BX Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 29, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Blackstone Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
