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Citi Research: Chinese Consumption Sector Prioritizes Sustainable Profit Growth; Recommended Stocks Include ANTA SPORTS, HAIDILAO, POP MART, and More

4.0

01-09aastocks

Citi Anticipates Hainan Duty-Free Sales Recovery Will Enhance CTG Duty-Free's 4Q Profits, Raises Target Price to $100

6.0

01-07aastocks

M Stanley Optimistic About Hainan Tourism Retail Sector, Increases CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) Price Target to $89

6.5

2025-12-31aastocks

<Outlook>CCBI and SPDBI's Preferred Hong Kong Stocks (Table)

4.5

2025-12-22aastocks

HSI Climbs 111 Points at Close Driven by Resource Stock Gains; New Consumers and CTG Duty-Free Flourish

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 27.04M, with retail investors contributing 5.96M and major investors adding -35.59M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

Citi

Citi Research

upgrade

$72 -> $100

2026-01-09

Reason

The analyst rating for CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) was kept at "Buy" due to several factors contributing to the strong performance of Hainan's offshore duty-free sales. These factors include new duty-free policies, wealth effects, promotional activities, and festival concerts. Additionally, Citi Research noted an improvement in earnings for 4Q25, prompting them to raise their target price from $72 to $100 and adjust their earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards. The overall positive outlook for Hainan's business recovery further supported the "Buy" rating.

Citi

Price Target

$72 -> $100

2026-01-09

upgrade

The analyst rating for CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) was kept at "Buy" due to several factors contributing to the strong performance of Hainan's offshore duty-free sales. These factors include new duty-free policies, wealth effects, promotional activities, and festival concerts. Additionally, Citi Research noted an improvement in earnings for 4Q25, prompting them to raise their target price from $72 to $100 and adjust their earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards. The overall positive outlook for Hainan's business recovery further supported the "Buy" rating.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

upgrade

$60 -> $89

2026-01-07

Reason

Morgan Stanley's analyst rating of "Equalweight" for CTG DUTY-FREE is based on a positive outlook for the Hainan tourism retail industry, driven by factors such as the gradual recovery of the macro economy, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support. While the broker forecasts significant growth in the company's revenue, operating profit, and net profit for 4Q25, it also anticipates a decline in full-year revenue and profit. The current valuation, with a projected PE ratio of about 26x for 2026, is considered reasonable after recent gains, leading the broker to advise investors to wait for a better opportunity to accumulate shares. Consequently, the target price was raised from $60 to $89.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

Price Target

$60 -> $89

2026-01-07

upgrade

Morgan Stanley's analyst rating of "Equalweight" for CTG DUTY-FREE is based on a positive outlook for the Hainan tourism retail industry, driven by factors such as the gradual recovery of the macro economy, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support. While the broker forecasts significant growth in the company's revenue, operating profit, and net profit for 4Q25, it also anticipates a decline in full-year revenue and profit. The current valuation, with a projected PE ratio of about 26x for 2026, is considered reasonable after recent gains, leading the broker to advise investors to wait for a better opportunity to accumulate shares. Consequently, the target price was raised from $60 to $89.

UBS

Buy

upgrade

2025-12-19

Reason

The analyst rating for CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) was raised to "Buy" by UBS due to several key factors: 1. Improved Earnings Forecasts: UBS raised its earnings forecasts for 2026-27 by 7-12%, anticipating a significant recovery in net profit growth of 34% and 21% year-over-year for those years, reversing the declines expected in 2024 and 2025. 2. Recovery in Offshore Duty-Free Sales: The report suggests that the worst period for offshore duty-free sales in Hainan has passed, with expectations of growth in sales driven by an optimized shopping policy. 3. Expanded Customer Base: The new policy has broadened the range of duty-free goods and diversified the customer base, including cross-border travelers and Hainan residents, which is expected to enhance sales. 4. Return of Purchasing Agents: There is potential for the return of purchasing agents, who previously contributed significantly to sales, indicating a recovery in market dynamics. 5. Increased Sales Forecasts: UBS has elevated its forecasts for offshore duty-free sales in Hainan to 21% and 36% for 2026-27, reflecting strong growth expectations. 6. Target Price Increase: The target price for CTG DUTY-FREE was raised from HKD71.2 to HKD90.73, further supporting the positive outlook. Overall, these factors contribute to a bullish outlook on CTG DUTY-FREE, justifying the "Buy" rating.

UBS

Buy

Price Target

2025-12-19

upgrade

The analyst rating for CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) was raised to "Buy" by UBS due to several key factors: 1. Improved Earnings Forecasts: UBS raised its earnings forecasts for 2026-27 by 7-12%, anticipating a significant recovery in net profit growth of 34% and 21% year-over-year for those years, reversing the declines expected in 2024 and 2025. 2. Recovery in Offshore Duty-Free Sales: The report suggests that the worst period for offshore duty-free sales in Hainan has passed, with expectations of growth in sales driven by an optimized shopping policy. 3. Expanded Customer Base: The new policy has broadened the range of duty-free goods and diversified the customer base, including cross-border travelers and Hainan residents, which is expected to enhance sales. 4. Return of Purchasing Agents: There is potential for the return of purchasing agents, who previously contributed significantly to sales, indicating a recovery in market dynamics. 5. Increased Sales Forecasts: UBS has elevated its forecasts for offshore duty-free sales in Hainan to 21% and 36% for 2026-27, reflecting strong growth expectations. 6. Target Price Increase: The target price for CTG DUTY-FREE was raised from HKD71.2 to HKD90.73, further supporting the positive outlook. Overall, these factors contribute to a bullish outlook on CTG DUTY-FREE, justifying the "Buy" rating.

HSBC

HSBC Global Research

Hold

to

Buy

upgrade

$97

2025-11-11

Reason

The analyst rating was upgraded from Hold to Buy by HSBC Global Research due to a series of supportive policies in mainland China that are expected to drive stronger growth in the domestic duty-free market in 2026. The broker raised its 2026 net profit forecast for CTG DUTY-FREE by 11% and lifted its revenue forecast by 10%, indicating a positive outlook for the company's operating income. Additionally, the elevated target prices for CTG DUTY-FREE's H-/A-shares reflect this optimistic growth outlook.

HSBC

Hold

to

Buy

Price Target

$97

2025-11-11

upgrade

The analyst rating was upgraded from Hold to Buy by HSBC Global Research due to a series of supportive policies in mainland China that are expected to drive stronger growth in the domestic duty-free market in 2026. The broker raised its 2026 net profit forecast for CTG DUTY-FREE by 11% and lifted its revenue forecast by 10%, indicating a positive outlook for the company's operating income. Additionally, the elevated target prices for CTG DUTY-FREE's H-/A-shares reflect this optimistic growth outlook.

HSBC Global Research

Hold

maintain

$49

2025-10-10

Reason

The analyst rating for CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) was maintained as a Hold due to the observation that shareholder returns appeared to be the only catalyst for the stock. Despite raising the target price from HKD49 to HKD51.4 because of a decrease in the weighted average cost of capital, the broker noted a lack of signs indicating a recovery in consumer demand. This was highlighted by the modest year-over-year growth in adjusted average daily sales during the recent National Day Golden Week, despite an overall increase in duty-free sales on Hainan Island.

HSBC Global Research

Hold

Price Target

$49

2025-10-10

maintain

The analyst rating for CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK) was maintained as a Hold due to the observation that shareholder returns appeared to be the only catalyst for the stock. Despite raising the target price from HKD49 to HKD51.4 because of a decrease in the weighted average cost of capital, the broker noted a lack of signs indicating a recovery in consumer demand. This was highlighted by the modest year-over-year growth in adjusted average daily sales during the recent National Day Golden Week, despite an overall increase in duty-free sales on Hainan Island.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

5Y Average PE

34.05

Current PE

26.25

Overvalued PE

47.82

Undervalued PE

20.28

Forward EV/EBITDA

N/A

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

19.89

Current EV/EBITDA

0.00

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

28.06

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

11.71

Forward PS

N/A

5Y Average PS

3.87

Current PS

0.00

Overvalued PS

5.76

Undervalued PS

1.97

Financials

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Quarterly

Trading Trends

Daily

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No data

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