Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew by 14.8% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion in December 2025, recovering to 91.5% of December 2019 levels, although it fell short of the 18% growth expected by Bloomberg.

January 2026 Projections: CICC estimates that Macau's GGR will be between MOP20.2-21.7 billion in January 2026, indicating a daily average of MOP650-700 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 10-19%, but remains 13-19% lower than January 2019 figures.

Stock Performance and Short Selling: The report highlights the stock performance of major gaming companies, with MGM CHINA, SANDS CHINA, and GALAXY ENT experiencing notable short selling activity, indicating market caution.

Licensing Fee Impact: Jefferies warns that a potential licensing fee hike for MGM CHINA could lead to a 10% drop in net profit for 2026, along with a possible review of dividend policies.

Market Performance: Hong Kong stock futures rose, with the HSI increasing by 0.45% to 25,751, and total half-day turnover reaching $96.537 billion.

IPO Activity: ILUVATAR COREX launched its IPO aiming to raise approximately $3.677 billion, while robotics company DOBOT proposed an IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Stock Movements: BIDU-SW surged 6.9% amid excitement over its Kunlun chip concept, while SMIC gained 3.2% after acquiring a stake in SMNC.

Declines in Other Stocks: POP MART's stock fell 5.2% due to a drop in second-hand blind box prices, and casino stocks like MELCO INT'L DEV and MGM CHINA experienced declines of 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively.

Market Performance: The HSI closed at 25,635, down 183 points (0.7%), with the HSCEI and HSTECH also experiencing declines. Total market turnover was HK$224.508 billion.

Fiscal Policy Update: China's Ministry of Finance plans to maintain a proactive fiscal policy next year, focusing on increased spending and support for the trade-in of old consumer goods.

Automotive Sector Gains: Notable gains were seen in the automotive sector, with companies like GEELY AUTO, LI AUTO-W, and NIO-SW reporting increases in stock prices, while BYD COMPANY emerged as the best-performing blue chip.

Gaming Sector Decline: MGM CHINA's stock plummeted over 17% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley, impacting other gaming stocks like SANDS CHINA and WYNN MACAU, which also faced losses.

Market Performance: The HSI rose 0.26% to 25,887, with the HSCEI increasing by 0.77% and the HSTECH up by 1.6%, while market turnover reached $126.415 billion.

Top Gainers: BYD COMPANY and XPENG-W were the best-performing blue chips, rising nearly 6% and over 6% respectively, with XPENG-W expanding into the Qatar market.

Declining Stocks: MGM CHINA saw a significant drop of over 14% due to increased royalty payments, while other casino stocks like SANDS CHINA and WYNN MACAU also experienced declines.

Short Selling Activity: Notable short selling was observed across various stocks, with LEAPMOTOR and MGM CHINA having high short selling ratios, indicating market skepticism.

Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 21 days of December reached MOP14.65 billion, with a daily average of approximately MOP697 million, showing a nearly 20% increase from December 2024.

Market Forecasts: UBS has revised its GGR forecasts for December and Q4 2025 upwards by 15% and 13% year-on-year, respectively, indicating potential growth of 15-16% year-on-year for Q4 2025.

Stock Recommendations: JPMorgan favors SANDS CHINA LTD for short-term investments due to expected dividend increases and market share growth, while GALAXY ENT is recommended for long-term growth potential.

Avoided Stocks: JPMorgan continues to avoid MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT and SJM HOLDINGS, citing concerns over their performance compared to other stocks in the sector.