S&P 500 Expected to Rise 16% in 2026, but Midterm Election Risks Loom
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
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Source: Fool
- Historical Performance: Since its inception in 1957, the S&P 500 has averaged a mere 1% return during midterm election years, with an average decline of 7% when a new president is in office, highlighting the negative impact of election-related uncertainty on the market.
- Volatility Warning: Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 experiences an average intra-year drawdown of 18% during midterm election years, suggesting that 2026 may face similar severe fluctuations, necessitating caution from investors.
- Future Outlook: Wall Street analysts project the S&P 500 will reach 8,085 points in the next year, implying over 16% upside from the current level of 6,940, although the accuracy of past forecasts has been only 86% over the last three years.
- Investment Strategy Advice: In the current market environment, investors are advised to limit stock purchases to their highest-conviction ideas and consider building a cash position to prepare for potential market corrections, as historical trends indicate that dips before elections often present good buying opportunities.
Analyst Views on FDS
Wall Street analysts forecast FDS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FDS is 295.91 USD with a low forecast of 253.00 USD and a high forecast of 326.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
7 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 289.680
Low
253.00
Averages
295.91
High
326.00
Current: 289.680
Low
253.00
Averages
295.91
High
326.00
About FDS
FactSet Research Systems Inc. is a global financial digital platform and enterprise solutions provider. The Company's solutions deliver financial data, analytics, and open technology to global clients, including individual users. Its segments include the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific. It provides financial data and market intelligence on securities, companies, industries and people to enable its clients to research investment ideas and analyze, monitor and manage their portfolios. It supports various workflows, including investment research, quantitative research, portfolio management and trading, portfolio analytics, wealth management, ESG investing solutions, industry analysis and data solutions. It provides open and flexible technology offerings, including a configurable desktop and mobile platform, and comprehensive data feeds. Its technology also includes LogoIntern, a workflow tool to streamline the task of adding, organizing, and formatting logos into pitch decks.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
