Shimao Group Reports 24% Decline in Contracted Sales to RMB 19.2 Billion for 9M25

JPMorgan's analyst rating of "Underweight" for CHINA VANKE is based on several key factors. Firstly, the recent resignation of Yu Liang as executive vice president is viewed as a non-event, as the company had already transitioned to being fully controlled by Shenzhen Metro. This indicates a shift in the company's governance structure that JPMorgan believes is not significant. Secondly, the company's attempt to seek a debt extension in the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests limited support from the Shenzhen government, indicating that CHINA VANKE is largely operating independently and facing financial challenges. The upcoming creditor meetings on January 14 and 21 are critical, as failure to secure the debt extension could lead to an official default, which JPMorgan already considers likely given the company's distressed status. Even if the debt extension is approved, JPMorgan believes it may only provide temporary relief, allowing the company to prepare for a more comprehensive debt restructuring, potentially involving debt-to-equity swaps. Historical experiences with other developers suggest that stock prices typically decline following such restructurings. Overall, these factors contribute to JPMorgan's cautious outlook on CHINA VANKE, reflected in their Underweight rating and target price of HKD2.7.