JPM Projects Increase in Chinese Banks' Share Prices This Year, Though Growth May Lag Due to Liquidity Factors; MINSHENG BANK Raised to Overweight Rating | Intellectia.AI
JPM Projects Increase in Chinese Banks' Share Prices This Year, Though Growth May Lag Due to Liquidity Factors; MINSHENG BANK Raised to Overweight Rating
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
JPMorgan's Forecast for Chinese Banks: JPMorgan predicts share price gains for Chinese banks but expects them to underperform the market in 2026, despite a projected liquidity boost from maturing time deposits.
Revenue and Profit Growth Expectations: The bank anticipates moderate improvements in revenue and profit growth for Chinese banks in 2026, driven by net interest income recovery and wealth management fees.
Stock Ratings and Recommendations: JPMorgan upgraded MINSHENG BANK's H-shares to Overweight while downgrading ABC's H-shares to Neutral, favoring high-dividend stocks like BANKCOMM and BANK OF CHINA.
Target Prices for Key Banks: The report includes updated target prices for several banks, with BANK OF CHINA and CITIC BANK rated Overweight, reflecting a positive outlook on their performance.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00939 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00939 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00939 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00939 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 7.800
Low
Averages
High
Current: 7.800
Low
Averages
High
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Neutral
to
Overweight
upgrade
RMB4.8 → RMB4.45
Al Analysis
2026-01-20
New
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
RMB4.8 → RMB4.45
Al Analysis
2026-01-20
New
upgrade
Neutral
to
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan's analyst rating for Chinese banks is based on a forecast of absolute share price gains, driven by expected improvements in net interest income and wealth management fees, which are projected to lead to moderate revenue and profit growth in 2026. However, the bank anticipates that these stocks may underperform the market in a liquidity-driven rally, particularly due to the maturation of approximately RMB110 trillion in time deposits, including RMB7 trillion in excess household deposits, which could provide liquidity support to capital markets and boost market sentiment. As a result, JPMorgan upgraded MINSHENG BANK's H-shares from Neutral to Overweight, while downgrading ABC's H-shares from Overweight to Neutral, reflecting differing growth potential among the banks.
M Stanley
maintain
$9.9
2025-12-24
Reason
M Stanley
Price Target
$9.9
2025-12-24
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for CCB (China Construction Bank) was kept at "Overweight" due to an increase in its target price to HKD 9.9 by Morgan Stanley. This suggests a positive outlook on the stock's performance, indicating that analysts expect it to outperform the market or its sector.
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M Stanley
M Stanley
Neutral
to
Neutral
maintain
2025-12-19
Reason
M Stanley
M Stanley
Price Target
2025-12-19
maintain
Neutral
to
Neutral
Reason
The analyst rating for ICBC (01398.HK) is "Neutral" with a target price adjustment from 5.81 to 5.8. The reasoning behind this rating is not explicitly stated in the provided text, but it can be inferred from the context that the overall market conditions for Chinese banks are being considered. The related news mentions that Morgan Stanley sees "absolute upside potential" for Chinese banks and anticipates a cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by the People's Bank of China in the first quarter of 2026. This suggests a cautious outlook for ICBC, reflecting a balance between potential upside and current market performance, leading to a neutral stance rather than a more aggressive buy or sell recommendation.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
upgrade
2025-12-19
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2025-12-19
upgrade
Reason
Morgan Stanley adjusted its earnings forecasts for CCB (00939.HK) primarily due to a slower recovery pace of state-owned banks' net interest margins (NIMs), which led to a reduction in NIM forecasts for 2025-27. However, the broker also noted higher-than-expected growth in fee income for 3Q25, prompting an increase in the relevant forecasts. As a result, Morgan Stanley slightly raised its 2025 post-tax net profit forecast for CCB by 0.1%, while lowering the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. Consequently, the target price for CCB was elevated from HKD9.5 to HKD9.9, leading to a rating of Overweight.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
