CMSI Rating: CMSI maintains an Overweight rating for LI NING (02331.HK), indicating confidence in the company's long-term potential despite current challenges.
Short Selling and Performance: The company is experiencing significant short selling, with a ratio of 29.288%, and has faced weak performance in 4Q25 and a slow start in 1Q26 due to external factors like a warm winter.
Revenue and Profit Forecasts: CMSI has lowered its 2026 revenue forecast for LI NING by 3% and reduced its net profit forecast by 14.7%, while also increasing sales and administrative expenses to support brand reinvestment.
Target Price: A target price of $22 has been set for LI NING, reflecting the broker's adjusted outlook based on the company's current performance and strategic initiatives.
Wall Street analysts forecast 02331 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02331 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 02331 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02331 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 19.370
Low
Averages
High
Current: 19.370
Low
Averages
High
CMSI
Buy
maintain
$22
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
CMSI
Price Target
$22
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating of "Buy" on LI NING (02331.HK) by CMSI is based on several key factors. Despite facing short-term challenges such as weak sales performance in 4Q25 and a slow start in 1Q26 due to warmer weather, the management's strict cost control is seen as a protective measure. Additionally, the management's commitment to prioritizing long-term brand value over short-term profit maximization is viewed positively. CMSI believes that any volatility from the 2026 forecast adjustments presents an opportunity for investors, as they anticipate a recovery in 2027. The target price set at $22 further supports the positive outlook.
Guosen Securities
Outperform
maintain
2025-12-29
Reason
Guosen Securities
Price Target
2025-12-29
maintain
Outperform
Reason
The analyst rating for LI NING (02331.HK) is maintained at "Outperform" due to several key factors highlighted in the report by Guosen Securities. These include:
1. Operational Improvements: The company has proactively reduced the scale of its directly-operated stores and controlled store area, which has led to an improvement in direct operating profit margin, projected to rise from about 10% in 2023 to mid-double digits in 1H25.
2. Stable Wholesale Channel: The wholesale channel has remained stable, and there has been a slight increase in the number of franchise stores, indicating a gradual recovery in distributor confidence.
3. Potential for Brand Momentum Recovery: If brand momentum recovers, it is expected that store performance will improve, and discount rates at existing stores will decrease, which could enhance operating leverage and drive further channel expansion.
4. Long-term Profit Growth Potential: The company is viewed as having significant long-term profit growth potential, supported by ample cash reserves.
5. Valuation: The reasonable valuation range for the company is maintained at $21.2 to $22.3, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 19x-20x for 2026, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth prospects.
These factors collectively support the positive outlook and the "Outperform" rating for LI NING.
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Citi
Buy
maintain
2025-12-15
Reason
Citi
Price Target
2025-12-15
maintain
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for LI NING (02331.HK) remains a Buy due to an updated target price, which has been lifted from HKD 18.1 to HKD 20.6. This adjustment reflects expectations for a gradual revenue pickup in 2026, despite a reduction in sales forecasts for 2026-27 by 4% and 3% respectively, and a cut in net profit forecasts for the same period by 6% and 5%. The overall outlook suggests confidence in the company's long-term growth potential, justifying the Buy rating.
CMSI
CMSI
Overweight
cut
$25 -> $22
2025-10-28
Reason
CMSI
CMSI
Price Target
$25 -> $22
2025-10-28
cut
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating for LI NING (02331.HK) is Overweight, as maintained by CMSI. The rationale behind this rating includes the mixed retail performance in 3Q25, which met expectations despite a decline in overall retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG). The e-commerce segment showed resilience with high single-digit growth. However, CMSI noted that LI NING did not achieve the anticipated revenue growth acceleration in 2H25 due to intense market competition, challenges in specific product categories, and a sluggish consumption environment.
Despite these challenges, CMSI highlighted LI NING's ongoing investments in product innovation, category expansion, and brand building as positive factors that could support future performance improvements. The expectation is that as structural issues are gradually resolved, these initiatives will help lay the groundwork for a turnaround in LI NING's performance. Consequently, while the target price was reduced from HKD25 to HKD22, the overall outlook remains optimistic, justifying the Overweight rating.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
