Citi Labels XIAOMI-W's 2026 EV Delivery Goal of 550K as Cautious

The analyst rating for XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) was given as "Buy" by Citi, despite the company's electric vehicle (EV) delivery target being below investor expectations. The reason for this rating is based on the belief that XIAOMI-W's production capacity is likely sufficient to support deliveries of over 600,000 EVs, which is higher than the company's stated target of 550,000 EVs for 2026. Citi's analysis indicates that while the target is conservative and a potential cut in EV shipment volume could impact profits, the overall operational capacity and market potential justify a positive outlook on the stock, leading to a target price of HKD50.

The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley is based on the clarification of the 'Two New' policies for 2026, which maintain the subsidy levels for technology hardware products, including the addition of smart glasses to the subsidy list. The firm views this as a positive catalyst for the technology hardware industry, as the market had anticipated a decrease in subsidies. The continuation of a 15% discount and the maximum subsidies for various consumer electronics are expected to benefit companies like XIAOMI-W, particularly in their AIoT business.

The analyst rating for XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) is a "Buy" based on several key reasons outlined in the report from Citi Research: 1. Strong Growth in Ultra-Premium Market: XIAOMI-W's smartphone shipments in the price range above US$800 experienced a 56% year-over-year growth in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a significant breakthrough in the ultra-premium market. 2. Favorable Cost Structure: The broker noted that with rising memory prices, the cost structure for high-end smartphones remains superior compared to mid- and low-end phones, which could enhance profitability. 3. Solid Long-Term Visibility: Citi Research expressed confidence in the company's long-term prospects, which supports their positive outlook. 4. SOTP Valuation Method: The use of a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, which assigns an earnings valuation multiple of 18.9x for core smartphone, IoT, and internet services, along with a 1.5x price-to-sales ratio for the smart EV business, underpins the target price of $50 based on 2026 forecasts. These factors collectively contribute to the positive analyst rating and target price for XIAOMI-W.

Goldman Sachs rated XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) as a "Buy" due to several key factors: the successful launch of the latest 17 Ultra smartphone series, which enhances its product line and reflects its commitment to a high-end strategy. The firm expects that this high-end strategy will continue to be a primary focus for XIAOMI-W as it aims to penetrate the Chinese market with products priced above RMB6,000 and expand its presence in overseas high-end markets. Additionally, Goldman Sachs highlighted XIAOMI-W's solid balance sheet, strong ecosystem integration capabilities, and cost advantages from its deep involvement in the supply chain, which are expected to enhance its competitiveness, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The target price set by Goldman Sachs for XIAOMI-W is $53.5.