PETROCHINA Drops Over 5% as Goldman Sachs Predicts Increased Long-Term Downside Risk for Oil Prices

The analyst rating from BOCI is maintained at Neutral on the Chinese oil industry due to the expectation that increased investment in Venezuela's oil industry, spurred by US President Donald Trump's remarks, could lead to a significant increase in Venezuela's oil output. This potential doubling of output to 2 million barrels per day is anticipated to result in a short-term decline in oil prices, which could create short-term selling pressure on companies like PETROCHINA.

The analyst rating from JPMorgan for PETROCHINA is based on several positive observations and projections: 1. Growth Capacity: Analysts were pleasantly surprised by the growth capacity of PETROCHINA's Southwest Oil & Gasfield, particularly in low-cost onshore natural gas production. 2. Resilience in Declining Oil Prices: There is increased confidence in PETROCHINA's ability to navigate five consecutive years of declining oil prices. 3. Government Support: The company is expected to benefit from the unconventional natural gas subsidy policy outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, leveraging its advanced exploration and development technology to enhance shale gas production. 4. Significant Reserves: The Sichuan Basin project has over 80 trillion cubic meters of undeveloped natural gas reserves, which positions PETROCHINA favorably against projected domestic natural gas sales. 5. Storage Capacity: PETROCHINA controls about 80% of China's working gas storage capacity and plans to significantly increase this capacity by 2030, allowing it to take advantage of lower spot liquefied natural gas prices. 6. Consistent Dividends: The expectation of a dividend increase to RMB0.48 per share for 2025 marks the sixth consecutive year of dividend hikes, indicating financial stability and shareholder return. Based on these factors, JPMorgan raised its target price for PETROCHINA from HKD9 to HKD10 and maintained an Overweight rating.

The analyst rating for PetroChina (00857.HK) is "Outperform" based on several key reasons outlined in the CLSA research report. Firstly, the company's third-quarter results for 2025 are expected to be solid, with the potential to exceed market expectations even if oil prices remain around US$60 per barrel. Additionally, the guidance for 2025 capital expenditure shows a 5% year-over-year decrease, indicating the first decline in three years, which suggests improved financial management. The low gearing ratio also provides room for the company to increase its full-year dividend yield, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 52% for 2024. Consequently, CLSA has raised its target prices for PetroChina's H-/A-shares, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's performance.

The analyst rating for PetroChina (00857.HK) was reiterated as "Buy" by DBS Group Research due to the company's 3Q25 results slightly beating expectations, despite a 15% year-over-year decline in oil prices. The company's net profit only slipped by 3.9% year-over-year, demonstrating resilience. Additionally, DBS Group Research highlighted PetroChina's flexible business model as a key reason for maintaining its position as the sector's top pick, leading to an increase in the target price from $8.02 to $8.8.