Revenue Growth: JD Logistics reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth last quarter, exceeding market expectations, driven by internal revenue increases despite a slowdown in external revenue.
Profit Decline: The company's non-IFRS net profit fell by 22% year-over-year in 3Q25, although this was better than market estimates, with expectations of continued strong internal revenue growth in 4Q25.
Future Projections: For 4Q25, JD Logistics anticipates a 33% growth in internal revenue, contributing to an overall projected revenue increase of 13% year-over-year.
Analyst Ratings: Nomura maintained a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of $17, citing improved utilization of investments and expected positive growth in adjusted operating profit.
Wall Street analysts forecast 02618 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02618 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 02618 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 02618 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 11.510
Low
Averages
High
Current: 11.510
Low
Averages
High
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Buy
downgrade
$16 -> $15
Al Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
BofA Securities
BofA Securities
Price Target
$16 -> $15
Al Analysis
2026-01-06
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA Securities has reiterated a Buy rating for JD LOGISTICS despite reducing its target price from HKD16 to HKD15. The reason for maintaining the Buy rating is the company's attractive valuation, even though the report predicts a 1% year-over-year growth in non-IFRS net profit for 4Q25, which indicates a 4% decline for the entire year of 2025, falling below the company's previous guidance. The profit margin pressure is attributed to intensified competition in the less-than-truckload transportation market and one-time losses.
Daiwa
Daiwa
Buy
downgrade
$19 -> $17
2026-01-06
Reason
Daiwa
Daiwa
Price Target
$19 -> $17
2026-01-06
downgrade
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating for JD Logistics (02618.HK) was reiterated at "Buy" despite the lowered target price from $19 to $17. This decision was influenced by the company's strong growth in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, although it faced challenges such as non-recurring cargo compensation losses and business restructuring due to intense market competition. Consequently, the broker firm, Daiwa, adjusted its FY2025-2027 EPS forecasts down by 5-7%.
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Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Equalweight
downgrade
$13
2026-01-06
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$13
2026-01-06
downgrade
Equalweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley has reduced its earnings forecasts for JD LOGISTICS for 2025-27 by 7%/7%/5% due to several factors: ongoing losses from its subsidiary Deppon Logistics, significant upfront investments in Kuayue-Express, and one-time losses related to damaged goods in overseas warehouses. Consequently, the target price for JD LOGISTICS has been slightly lowered from HKD 13 to HKD 12.8, and the rating has been set to Equalweight.
Citi
Buy
downgrade
$18 -> $17
2026-01-06
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$18 -> $17
2026-01-06
downgrade
Buy
Reason
The analyst rating from Citi for JD LOGISTICS is a "Buy" based on the expectation that the company will sustain growth in its integrated supply chain business despite facing intensified market competition and increased investments. Although Citi predicts a flat gross margin for 4Q25 and adjusted earnings that fall short of market expectations, they foresee profit margins resuming year-over-year expansion in 2026. This positive outlook on future growth justifies the "Buy" rating, even as the target price is slightly adjusted down from HKD18 to HKD17.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
