New York Fed President Sees 2.5%-2.75% GDP Growth in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
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Source: stocktwits
- Optimistic Inflation Trends: John Williams, President of the New York Fed, stated that while tariffs have significantly raised U.S. import prices, underlying inflation trends remain favorable with no signs of broader inflationary pressures, expecting inflation to peak in the first half of 2026.
- GDP Growth Forecast: Williams anticipates U.S. real GDP growth between 2.5% and 2.75% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and increased investments in artificial intelligence, which will provide strong momentum for economic recovery.
- Cooling Labor Market: He noted that the labor market continued to cool in 2025, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 50,000 in December, significantly below the 73,000 expected by analysts, indicating that labor demand is not keeping pace with supply.
- Stable Interest Rate Policy: Williams indicated that monetary policy is now close to neutral, with no near-term rate cuts expected, maintaining the current rate range of 3.50% to 3.75%, which supports labor market stabilization and the return of inflation to the FOMC's long-term goal of 2%.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
