China's Fuel Export Quotas: China is expected to finalize its fuel export quotas within the next two months, with a significant increase anticipated for 2026 to address declining domestic fuel demand and combat deflation.
Impact on SINOPEC: Morgan Stanley predicts that SINOPEC CORP will see improved earnings in 2026 and achieve the highest dividend yield among major Chinese oil companies, maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock.
PetroChina's Gas Prices: PETROCHINA may experience a decrease in wholesale natural gas prices in March, as import costs are expected to drop significantly when the 2026/27 seasonal prices are finalized.
Market Context: The report highlights the broader implications of these changes for the Chinese oil market, particularly in relation to refining margins and global market conditions.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00386 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00386 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00386 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00386 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 4.820
Low
Averages
High
Current: 4.820
Low
Averages
High
Citi Research
Citi
maintain
$5.2
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Citi Research
Citi
Price Target
$5.2
Al Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating for SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK) is set at "Buy" with a target price of $5.2. This positive outlook is based on the anticipated benefits from the restructuring with China National Aviation Fuel (CNAF) Group, which is expected to enhance SINOPEC's development in aviation fuel and sustainable aviation fuel. This move is seen as a way to bolster its refining and sales business while mitigating the impact of the declining demand for gasoline and diesel in China. The report highlights the potential synergies between SINOPEC's aviation fuel business and CNAF Group, indicating a resilient long-term demand growth for aviation fuel.
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$4
2026-01-09
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$4
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is maintained as Neutral due to the following reasons:
1. State-Owned Enterprise Restructuring: The approval of the restructuring of Sinopec Group and CNAF reflects the importance of such initiatives in China's "15th Five-Year Plan." However, JPMorgan does not expect this restructuring to have a direct impact on SINOPEC CORP's earnings or cash flow.
2. Uncertainty of Business Integration: There is uncertainty regarding whether the restructuring will lead to business integration with listed companies, which adds to the cautious outlook.
3. Short-Term Challenges: SINOPEC CORP is anticipated to continue facing challenges in the short term, which supports the decision to keep the Neutral rating.
Overall, these factors contribute to the decision to maintain a target price of HKD4 for SINOPEC CORP.
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Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
maintain
2025-12-22
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2025-12-22
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley is based on the expectation that China's fuel export quotas will be significantly increased for 2026 due to a continuous decline in domestic fuel demand. This increase is viewed as a strong "anti-involutionary" measure to combat deflation and improve domestic refining margins to align with global levels. As a result, Morgan Stanley anticipates that SINOPEC CORP will experience a marked improvement in its 2026 earnings and achieve the highest dividend yield among major Chinese oil companies, leading to an Overweight rating on the stock.
Citi Research
NULL
to
Buy
maintain
2025-10-31
Reason
Citi Research
Price Target
2025-10-31
maintain
NULL
to
Buy
Reason
Citi Research issued a "Buy" rating for PETROCHINA, citing optimism about the company's ability to generate free cash flow and the potential for an increase in its dividend payout ratio. They set a target price of $8.2 for PETROCHINA's H-shares and raised the target price for its A-shares from RMB10.3 to RMB10.5.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
