M Stanley Predicts Increase in HK Home Prices, Central Office Rents, and Retail Sales This Year, Favors Residential Property Market

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on several key factors: 1. Recent Performance: The China and Hong Kong property sectors have shown significant gains, with increases of 7% and 5% respectively, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 3% rise. This performance is attributed to heightened policy expectations amidst deteriorating economic data. 2. Policy Expectations: The broker believes that the rise in Chinese developers is primarily driven by expectations of new policy support, which is likely to continue until the next government meeting in late November or December. If no new policies are introduced by then, there is a risk of the sector underperforming again. 3. Industry Fundamentals: Current industry fundamentals suggest an increasing probability of new policy support, which supports a positive outlook for the property sector. 4. Risk-Reward Assessment: JPMorgan has identified specific stocks with favorable risk-reward ratios, particularly in the context of a policy-driven rebound. They have highlighted certain developers and landlords as offering better risk-reward profiles compared to residential stocks, which have already priced in expectations of a full recovery. 5. Valuation Considerations: The broker notes that while they maintain a positive view on the property market, residential stock valuations have reached levels that reflect expectations of recovery, indicating that there may be limited upside potential in that segment. Overall, the analyst rating reflects a cautious optimism based on policy expectations and market performance, while also recognizing the potential for underperformance if those expectations are not met.