Fitch Ratings: China's New Home Market Declines in Q4; November 2025 Sales and Prices Fall Short of Expectations

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the belief that the recent reduction in the value-added tax rate for residential properties will have a limited impact on the real estate market. The broker argues that while the policy may slightly reduce costs for sellers, it does not benefit buyers or improve their expectations regarding home prices. Consequently, without a stronger commitment from the government to stabilize home prices, JPMorgan projects that the real estate market will remain sluggish. This analysis leads to their recommendations, with certain stocks being rated as Overweight and others advised to be avoided.

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by the emphasis on stabilizing the property market during the recent Central Economic Work Conference in mainland China. While the report notes that specific measures were not detailed, it suggests that potential future policies may focus on reducing home buying costs, such as mortgage subsidies. However, JPMorgan expresses caution, indicating that without a stronger commitment from policymakers to stabilize home prices, any measures taken may only have a short-term effect on trading volume and prices. Historical data also suggests that the property sector tends to underperform following government meetings if the policies announced are not unexpected. This cautious outlook is reflected in their selective recommendations for certain stocks while remaining wary of others.

The analyst rating of "Outperform" for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on the broker's assessment that the company is experiencing significantly positive changes in its management and strategy. The report highlights that historical burdens are manageable and that the company has the potential for incremental flexibility. This is attributed to the refined management and strategic focus, which are seen as providing a solid foundation for reshaping value.