Market Weakness: China's home market continued to weaken in 4Q25, with sales down 11.2% YoY, GFA sold decreasing by 8.1%, and average selling prices falling by 3.3%, surpassing previous forecasts by Fitch Ratings.
Inventory Trends: Despite a decline in completed new-home inventory for nine months, the inventory was only about 1% lower at the end of November 2025 compared to the end of 2024, indicating that destocking is lagging behind the drop in sales.
Fitch Ratings Adjustments: Fitch revised the outlooks on CHINA JINMAO and CAPITAL DEV from Negative to Stable due to improved sales performance and business clarity, while downgrading CHINA VANKE to 'RD' after it defaulted on bond payments.
Future Price Pressures: Elevated inventories are expected to continue exerting pressure on home prices throughout 2026, as the market struggles with high inventory levels amidst declining sales.
Wall Street analysts forecast 00817 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00817 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast 00817 stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for 00817 is USD with a low forecast of USD and a high forecast of USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Current: 1.300
Low
Averages
High
Current: 1.300
Low
Averages
High
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$35/$44.5/$1.75
Al Analysis
2025-12-31
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
$35/$44.5/$1.75
Al Analysis
2025-12-31
maintain
Overweight
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the belief that the recent reduction in the value-added tax rate for residential properties will have a limited impact on the real estate market. The broker argues that while the policy may slightly reduce costs for sellers, it does not benefit buyers or improve their expectations regarding home prices. Consequently, without a stronger commitment from the government to stabilize home prices, JPMorgan projects that the real estate market will remain sluggish. This analysis leads to their recommendations, with certain stocks being rated as Overweight and others advised to be avoided.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
maintain
2025-12-12
Reason
JPMorgan
JPMorgan
Price Target
2025-12-12
maintain
Reason
The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by the emphasis on stabilizing the property market during the recent Central Economic Work Conference in mainland China. While the report notes that specific measures were not detailed, it suggests that potential future policies may focus on reducing home buying costs, such as mortgage subsidies. However, JPMorgan expresses caution, indicating that without a stronger commitment from policymakers to stabilize home prices, any measures taken may only have a short-term effect on trading volume and prices. Historical data also suggests that the property sector tends to underperform following government meetings if the policies announced are not unexpected. This cautious outlook is reflected in their selective recommendations for certain stocks while remaining wary of others.
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CICC
CICC
initiated
$1.86
2025-10-24
Reason
CICC
CICC
Price Target
$1.86
2025-10-24
initiated
Reason
The analyst rating of "Outperform" for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on the broker's assessment that the company is experiencing significantly positive changes in its management and strategy. The report highlights that historical burdens are manageable and that the company has the potential for incremental flexibility. This is attributed to the refined management and strategic focus, which are seen as providing a solid foundation for reshaping value.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Equalweight
maintain
2025-10-06
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
2025-10-06
maintain
Equalweight
Reason
The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is maintained at "Equalweight" due to several positive factors. The company's property sales have increased by 27% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, prompting the broker to raise its full-year sales forecast by 11% to RMB118 billion, indicating a projected 20% year-over-year growth. Additionally, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 6%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley has also raised its gross profit margin forecasts for the development business for the same period, reflecting better-than-expected average selling prices of new projects. These factors contribute to a more optimistic outlook, but the "Equalweight" rating suggests that the stock is fairly valued at its current price level.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
