Rocket Lab Corp's shares fell by 5.00% as the stock crossed below its 5-day SMA, reflecting a negative reaction to recent analyst downgrades. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock downgraded Rocket Lab from Overweight to Sector Weight, citing that many of the company's growth catalysts have been fully priced in, leading to a balanced risk-reward profile for the stock. Despite this downgrade, the broader market, with the Nasdaq-100 up 1.09% and the S&P 500 up 0.64%, indicates a sector rotation where Rocket Lab's stock is underperforming compared to the overall market trends.
The downgrade reflects a cautious outlook on Rocket Lab's future growth potential, especially after securing an $816 million contract for SDA Tranche 3 and opening the LC-3 launch pad at Wallops Island. The analyst's shift in rating suggests that investors may need to reassess their expectations for the stock's performance moving forward.
In summary, while Rocket Lab has made significant strides in securing contracts and expanding its capabilities, the recent downgrade highlights potential challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory amidst a competitive landscape.
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RKLB is 73.11 USD with a low forecast of 60.00 USD and a high forecast of 90.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RKLB is 73.11 USD with a low forecast of 60.00 USD and a high forecast of 90.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 80.480
Low
60.00
Averages
73.11
High
90.00
Current: 80.480
Low
60.00
Averages
73.11
High
90.00
TD Cowen
Buy
maintain
$100
2026-01-22
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen keeps a Buy rating on Rocket Lab with a $100 price target after the company confirmed Neutron's Stage 1 tank ruptured under pressure tests. The company indicated there was no significant damage to the test structure or facilities and that the next Stage 1 tank is already in production, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the rupture may delay Neutron's initial launch, which was set to occur in Q2. If a launch delay results from the tank rupture, a second Neutron launch in 2026 would be unlikely, adds TD. Rocket Lab shares are down 1% to $86.52 in premarket trading.
Goldman Sachs
Anthony Valentini
Neutral
maintain
$47 -> $69
2026-01-20
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Anthony Valentini
Price Target
$47 -> $69
2026-01-20
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Valentini raised the firm's price target on Rocket Lab to $69 from $47 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm's Q4 Aerospace & Defense preview highlights favorable aerospace OE conditions, with supply below demand, while aftermarket growth outpaces global ASMs with strong pricing supporting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Business jet demand remains solid amid tight supply, defense hardware growth is improving though margins face risk from shifting contracts, defense tech momentum emphasizes faster, commercial-style providers, and federal IT obligations continue under pressure, the firm says.
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BofA
Buy
maintain
$60 -> $120
2026-01-20
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$60 -> $120
2026-01-20
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Rocket Lab to $120 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which expects significant investor interest in the space end-market this year on the heels of a potential SpaceX IPO, sees Rocket Lab leveraging its vertical integration in 2026. Neutron's debut could bolster launch demand and support space-based applications, while the recent SDA award validates Rocket Lab's ability to win national security space share alongside the primes, the analyst tells investors.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$67 -> $105
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$67 -> $105
2026-01-16
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $105, up from $67. The firm sees the space technology industry as attractive in 2026. The favorable trends that drove 2025 outperformance should carry into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley introduced an "Attractive industry view" on space technology into 2026, driven by higher launch cadences, new products, policy support and market maturation. It cites improved risk/rewards for the handful of upgrades it made.
About RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation is an end-to-end space company. The Company designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets, spacecraft and spacecraft components, and related software and services to support the space economy. The Company delivers reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it easier to access space. Its Launch Services segment provides launch and launch-related services to customers on a dedicated mission or ride-share basis. Its Space Systems segment comprises the design and manufacture of spacecraft components and spacecraft program management services, space data applications, and mission operations. Its space systems solutions are the building blocks for spacecraft, which include composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, solar solutions, radios, separation systems, and command and control spacecraft software.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
