Redwire Corp's stock fell 7.17% as it crossed below its 5-day SMA, reflecting a challenging market environment.
Despite reporting a 51% year-over-year revenue growth to $103.4 million in Q3, the results fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant stock pullback. Additionally, the company's non-GAAP gross margin improved to 27.1%, but rising operating expenses resulted in a wider-than-expected loss, indicating ongoing cost management challenges. The stock's decline also coincides with broader market weakness, as the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices dropped 1.73% and 1.47%, respectively.
This performance highlights the volatility in the space technology sector, where Redwire is positioned. The company secured a $44 million contract with DARPA, showcasing strong demand in the defense sector, but investor sentiment remains cautious due to the mixed financial results.
Wall Street analysts forecast RDW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RDW is 12.50 USD with a low forecast of 6.00 USD and a high forecast of 22.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RDW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RDW is 12.50 USD with a low forecast of 6.00 USD and a high forecast of 22.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.810
Low
6.00
Averages
12.50
High
22.00
Current: 12.810
Low
6.00
Averages
12.50
High
22.00
Roth Capital
Buy
maintain
$15 -> $20
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Roth Capital
Price Target
$15 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Roth Capital raised the firm's price target on Redwire to $20 from $15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company has announced it has secured part of a defense contract award relating to the government's Golden Dome Program, and while no specific awards have been committed to yet, the firm is encouraged by Redwire's inclusion, stating that its portfolio position as a key space infrastructure vendor can serve it well as this major defense program evolves, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Truist
Hold
upgrade
$8 -> $13
2026-01-09
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$8 -> $13
2026-01-09
upgrade
Hold
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on Redwire to $13 from $8 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Despite a strong 2025, the Aerospace & Defense sector remains broadly bullish for 2026, with rising aircraft production and sustained aftermarket demand supporting both OE and AM segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Defense may see fewer catalysts, but recapitalization, geopolitical tensions, and replenishment needs should sustain demand, making stock selection critical amid elevated valuations, particularly for SMID defense tech names, the firm adds.
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H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
maintain
$22
2025-12-23
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$22
2025-12-23
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright believes current Street estimates for Redwire may not be fully capturing the potential revenue opportunity of the combined entity. This suggests potential upside to forecasts for 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. H.C. Wainwright does not expect another federal government shutdown next year, which negatively impacted Redwire's second half of 2026, and says the company has been awarded multiple new contracts over the past two months. H.C. Wainwright sees additional opportunities in 2026 for Redwire, including initial large-scale contract awards from the Golden Dome missile defense initiative as well as the U.S. Army's Long-Range Reconnaissance program. It believes the stock is "positioned for material improvement" in 2026. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $22 price target.
KeyBanc
initiated
2025-12-18
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
2025-12-18
initiated
Reason
KeyBanc initiated coverage of Redwire with a Sector Weight rating.
About RDW
Redwire Corporation is an integrated aerospace and defense company focused on advanced technologies. The Company is focused on aerospace infrastructure, autonomous systems and multi-domain operations leveraging digital engineering and AI automation. Its capabilities include avionics, sensors, power solutions, critical structures, mechanisms, radio frequency systems, platforms, missions, microgravity payloads and uncrewed airborne system (UAS) technology. It specializes in core avionics, such as scalable power distribution and on-board computing capabilities. These specialized avionics and sensors can be applied across multiple space environments, including Low Earth Orbit, Geostationary Orbit, Cis-lunar and deep space missions. It provides a range of sensors, including star trackers and sun sensors, which are critical for navigation and control of spacecraft. It offers a variety of solar array solutions for spacecraft spanning the spectrum of size, power needs, and orbital location.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
