Red Cat Holdings Inc. experienced a significant price drop of 10.21% as it crossed below its 5-day SMA.
The company preannounced Q4 2025 sales between $24 million and $26.5 million, reflecting an astounding 1,842% year-over-year increase, indicating robust demand and rapid production scaling in the military drone sector. Despite this impressive sales growth, the stock has faced downward pressure, likely due to sector rotation as the broader market, including the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, showed gains of 0.42% and 0.49%, respectively. Additionally, Northland Capital's price target increase to $22 per share and an outperform rating have not been enough to counteract the stock's decline.
This sales surge highlights Red Cat's strong market position amid increasing domestic demand, particularly following the FCC's ban on foreign-made drones. However, the company still faces challenges in profitability and market share within the competitive drone industry.
Wall Street analysts forecast RCAT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RCAT is 15.00 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 18.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RCAT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RCAT is 15.00 USD with a low forecast of 12.00 USD and a high forecast of 18.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 14.250
Low
12.00
Averages
15.00
High
18.00
Current: 14.250
Low
12.00
Averages
15.00
High
18.00
Northland
analyst
maintain
$18 -> $22
2026-01-20
Reason
Northland
analyst
Price Target
$18 -> $22
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
maintain
Reason
Northland raised the firm's price target on Red Cat to $22 from $18 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Positive preliminary Q4 results prove out Red Cat's ability to rapidly scale, argues the analyst, who calls the company "uniquely positioned as a leading UAS and USV vendor."
Needham
Buy
downgrade
$17 -> $12
2025-11-14
Reason
Needham
Price Target
$17 -> $12
2025-11-14
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Needham lowered the firm's price target on Red Cat to $12 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported strong Q3 results, with record revenues that exceeded Street expectations, but due to the government shutdown and a new product delay, Red Cat lowered 2025 revenue guidance 44% below Street expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds however that while the SRR2 FRP contract is likely pushed out to Q1, the size of the opportunity is unchanged.
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Northland
Michael Latimore
Outperform
maintain
$15 -> $16
2025-08-15
Reason
Northland
Michael Latimore
Price Target
$15 -> $16
2025-08-15
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Northland analyst Michael Latimore raised the firm's price target on Red Cat to $16 from $15 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company announced they signed the TD3 LRP contract with the U.S. Army to deliver up to 690 SRR Black Widow systems for federal FY25. The firm, which estimates the value to be $40M+, sees visibility into FY26 as "high now."
FuzzyPanda Research
FuzzyPanda
downgrade
2025-08-15
Reason
FuzzyPanda Research
FuzzyPanda
Price Target
2025-08-15
downgrade
Reason
FuzzyPanda Research is short Red Cat as it believes "that the best time to short a paid stock promotion is when it finally has to deliver results." In a recently published report, FuzzyPanda says that "CEO Jeff Thompson prematurely announced Red Cat had won the Army's SRR Tranche 2 program in November... And when Thompson finally announced on Thursday that Red Cat had signed its Low-Rate Initial Production starter contract, it turned out to be for 690 drone systems - 46% smaller than what Jeff promised to investors back in February 2025... Jeff also keeps telling investors the Army revenue is guaranteed and that the entire Army SRR T2 budget will go to Red Cat. But Jeff is obscuring that the Army is not monogamous. The Army SRR T2 program is actually NOT sole sourced."
Reference Link
About RCAT
Red Cat Holdings Inc is a Puerto Rico-based provider of products, services, and solutions to the drone industry. The Company provides its services to the enterprise, military, and consumer markets via designing, developing, marketing, and drone software and products' sales. Red Cat's Golden Eagle drones are approved by the Department of Defense for reconnaissance, public safety, and inspection applications. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Teal Drones and FlightWave Aerospace, The Company develops American-made hardware and software that support military, government, and public safety operations across air, land, and sea. Its Family of Systems, led by Black Widow, delivers tactical capabilities in small, unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS). The Company's offering also includes uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), delivering integrated platforms designed to enhance safety and multi-domain mission effectiveness.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
