Cenovus Energy Inc's stock price fell by 3.32% today, hitting a 20-day low amid mixed market conditions, with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.15% and the S&P 500 down 0.02%.
The decline in Cenovus's stock is attributed to sector rotation, as the company announced a capital budget for 2026 ranging from $5 billion to $5.3 billion, which includes significant investments in upstream production and downstream processing capacity. This cautious approach towards future growth, despite a projected 4% increase in upstream production, has raised concerns among investors about the company's ability to maintain competitiveness in the oil and gas market.
Investors will be closely monitoring Cenovus's execution of its capital investment plan and the anticipated production growth, as these factors will be crucial for the company's performance in the coming years.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVE is 22.66 USD with a low forecast of 20.00 USD and a high forecast of 32.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CVE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVE is 22.66 USD with a low forecast of 20.00 USD and a high forecast of 32.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.810
Low
20.00
Averages
22.66
High
32.00
Current: 19.810
Low
20.00
Averages
22.66
High
32.00
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$31 -> $29
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$31 -> $29
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Cenovus Energy to C$29 from C$31 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
JPMorgan
Arun Jayaram
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$29 -> $25
2026-01-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Arun Jayaram
Price Target
$29 -> $25
2026-01-20
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram downgraded Cenovus Energy to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of C$25, down from C$29. The firm adjusted ratings in the integrated oils sector as part of its 2026 outlook. The outlook for the group continues to shaped by supply side risks for oil, but a more constructive outlook downstream, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Amid the rise in geopolitical risks, JPMorgan says the U.S. majors screen more attractive than the Canadian integrateds. It cites relative valuations for the rating changes.
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Goldman Sachs
Neil Mehta
initiated
$20
2026-01-02
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Neil Mehta
Price Target
$20
2026-01-02
initiated
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta reinstated coverage of Cenovus Energy with a Buy rating and $20 price target, which offers 21% total return from current levels. The firm sees Cenovus posting "strong" free cash flow growth over the long-term. The sale of the company's 50% interest in the Wood River and Borger refineries along with the acquisition of MEG Energy improved its fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
TD Securities
Menno Hulshof
Buy
maintain
$28 -> $29
2025-12-03
Reason
TD Securities
Menno Hulshof
Price Target
$28 -> $29
2025-12-03
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Securities analyst Menno Hulshof raised the firm's price target on Cenovus Energy to C$29 from C$28 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
About CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company has oil and natural gas production operations in Canada and the Asia Pacific region, and upgrading, refining and marketing operations in Canada and the United States. The Company's segments include Upstream and Downstream. Its Upstream segment includes Oil Sands, Conventional, and Offshore. Its Downstream segment consists of Canadian Manufacturing and the United States Manufacturing. The Company's Upstream operations include oil sands projects in northern Alberta, in-situ thermal oil production at Christina Lake in northeast Alberta, thermal and conventional crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) projects across Western Canada, crude oil production offshore Newfoundland and Labrador and natural gas and NGLs production offshore China and Indonesia. Its Downstream operations include upgrading and refining operations in Canada and the United States, and commercial fuel operations across Canada.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
