BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. saw its stock rise by 5.07% as it crossed above the 5-day SMA, despite ongoing concerns regarding its financial health.
The company is currently under investigation by Pomerantz LLP for potential securities fraud, which has raised alarms among investors. Additionally, Cantor analysts downgraded BigBear's rating from Overweight to Neutral, citing a significant 20% year-over-year revenue decline in Q1 2026. This downgrade reflects heightened execution risks associated with the company's reliance on government contracts, which may lead to continued operational losses. The company's adjusted EBITDA was reported at negative $9.4 million in Q3 2025, indicating severe profitability pressures.
These developments suggest that while the stock experienced a short-term gain, the underlying financial issues and the investigation could lead to increased volatility and uncertainty in the future.
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBAI is 6.33 USD with a low forecast of 5.00 USD and a high forecast of 8.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBAI is 6.33 USD with a low forecast of 5.00 USD and a high forecast of 8.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 5.520
Low
5.00
Averages
6.33
High
8.00
Current: 5.520
Low
5.00
Averages
6.33
High
8.00
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
$7 -> $6
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded BigBear.ai to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $6, down from $7. Mear-term fundamentals remain pressured, with revenue down 20.1% year over year in Q3, driven by federal program disruptions, and execution risk remains elevated given BigBear.ai's reliance on lumpy government contracts, contributing to continued operating losses and margin pressure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Cantor Fitzgerald
Jonathan Ruykhaver
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Jonathan Ruykhaver
Price Target
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver downgraded BigBear.ai to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $6, down from $7.
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H.C. Wainwright
Buy
downgrade
$9 -> $8
2025-08-12
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$9 -> $8
2025-08-12
downgrade
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright lowered the firm's price target on BigBear.ai to $8 from $9 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the company's "disappointing" Q3 Results and near-term challenges do not lessen its longer term optimism on the shares. BigBear.ai remains well positioned to be a beneficiary of the One Big Beautiful Bill, the analyst tells investors in a research note. H.C. Wainwright views the post-earnings selloff as a buying opportunity.
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
maintain
$6 -> $9
2025-07-01
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$6 -> $9
2025-07-01
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on BigBear.ai to $9 from $6 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Shares have increased 52.6% through the first six months of 2025, which the firm sees being driven by a combination of new customer and contract momentum as well as favorable underlying secular trends in AI-driven defense and security. The firm expects shares to continue to move higher as the company executes against its current guidance and recommends investors continue to accumulate a position in ahead of improving financial results in the second half and 2026.
About BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management and digital identity. The Company is a technology-led solutions organization, providing both software and services to its customers. It combines subject-matter expertise with technology to connect the enterprise, provide insights on process performance and recommendations for managing risk. It offers computer vision, anomaly/event detection, and descriptive and predictive analytics to support operations and break down silos between vendors and systems. The Company’s customers span the public and private sector, including the United States defense and intelligence agencies, border protection, transportation security, manufacturing, distribution and logistics, as well as travel, entertainment and tourism. It also offers software assets that are tailored for digital identity and biometrics, leveraging advanced vision AI technology.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
