The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Over — A New Liquidity-Driven Supercycle Has Started

Bitcoin's Market Dynamics: Raoul Pal argues that Bitcoin's price is now influenced by global liquidity cycles rather than the traditional four-year halving schedule, indicating a shift in market behavior driven by institutional investment and stablecoin growth.

Current Market Sentiment: Despite recent price declines, institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs suggest a consolidation phase rather than a market top, with demand remaining strong against a bearish narrative.

Future Liquidity Expansion: Pal predicts that macro liquidity trends, particularly fiscal stimulus and banking regulation changes, could lead to significant market movements in 2026, benefiting Bitcoin and altcoins as capital flows into risk assets.

Institutional Accumulation Impact: The accumulation of Bitcoin by public companies and institutional investors is tightening supply, which, combined with long-term strategies, is expected to reduce downside pressure on prices.