Santa Claus Rally Uncertain as 2025 May Repeat Negative Returns
Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert
Source: Coinmarketcap
Updated: Dec 25 2025- Market Rally Expectations: According to Citadel Securities, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns during the Santa Claus Rally period in about 75% of years since 1928, yet 2024 saw a -0.9% return, and if 2025 repeats this, it would mark a rare occurrence of two consecutive years without a rally.
- Interest Rate Impact: Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the current effective federal funds rate stands at 3.64%, down from 4.33% at the end of 2024, providing better support for the stock market, though future economic trends remain a concern.
- AI Sector Capital Inflow: In 2025, the global tech sector issued $428.3 billion in bonds, with the US tech sector responsible for $341.8 billion, indicating significant capital commitments to AI, despite OpenAI projecting a net loss of $9 billion this year.
- Manufacturing Weakness: While Trump's tariffs generated $124.5 billion in revenue in 2025, US manufacturing has contracted for nine consecutive months, highlighting deeper structural issues that may impact future market performance.
About the author
Ohris M. Greyoon
Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.
