Polymarket Volume Data Under Scrutiny Following Researcher's Discovery of Significant Error

Data Issue on Polymarket: A researcher from Paradigm, known as Storm, revealed that trading activity on the prediction market platform Polymarket may be overstated due to a data issue where trades are counted twice, leading to misleading volume figures.

Impact on Reported Volume: The duplication of trade entries has inflated both notional and cashflow volume metrics, affecting the perception of Polymarket's activity and raising questions about its recent valuation and reported trading figures.

Valuation Concerns: The Intercontinental Exchange recently valued Polymarket at $9 billion based on inflated trading volume, which may be unreliable if the duplicated counts are corrected, potentially impacting future fundraising efforts.

Call for Transparency: Storm emphasized the need for the prediction market industry to adopt shared and transparent reporting methods to ensure consistent measurement and accurate representation of trading activity.