Paradigm Identifies Duplicate Volume Counts in Polymarket Trading Data

Double-Counting Issue: Paradigm researchers, led by Storm Slivkoff, found that Polymarket's trading volume figures are often double-counted due to redundant blockchain events in its on-chain data, primarily caused by the summation of OrderFilled events.

Complex Trade Anatomy: Slivkoff explained that Polymarket's transactions follow a rigid template with matched orders, leading to confusion among crypto data analysts due to the complexity of the on-chain data and the presence of redundant tracking events.

Simulator Development: Paradigm has created a simulator to demonstrate how various trading metrics behave across different trade types, allowing analysts to adjust parameters and perform their own simulations while noting specific invariants in trade positions.

Volume Calculation Challenges: The researcher highlighted that while calculating notional and cash flow volume for swap trades is straightforward, it becomes more complex for merge and split trades, with the OrderFilled sum often presenting inflated values.