Bitcoin's 2026 Price Surge Expectations Weaken, Only 21% Probability for $150,000
Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert
- Market Confidence Weakens: Despite analysts predicting a bull market for Bitcoin in 2026, Polymarket data reveals that investors assign only a 21% probability for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 this year, indicating a significant decline in market confidence.
- Price Expectation Analysis: A poll shows that investors believe there is a 45% chance Bitcoin will hit $120,000 in 2026, while the probability for $130,000 drops to just 35%, reflecting a generally low expectation for Bitcoin's rebound.
- Safe Investment Choice: Currently, Polymarket investors view Bitcoin reaching $100,000 as the safest bet, pricing it at 80%, which highlights a cautious outlook on future price movements.
- Policy Impact Factors: Analysts' bullish predictions for Bitcoin are partly driven by expectations that the new Fed chairman will further lower interest rates, along with the approval of the CLARITY Act, which may bring greater regulatory clarity to the market and facilitate corporate adoption.
About the author
Ohris M. Greyoon
Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.
