Arthur Hayes Predicts U.S. Politics Will Drive Bitcoin Surge by 2028
Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert
Source: Coinmarketcap
Updated: Jan 06 2026- Political Impact Analysis: Arthur Hayes argues that a Republican victory in the 2028 U.S. elections will lead to aggressive money printing, creating historically bullish conditions for Bitcoin and other risk assets, provided gasoline prices remain stable.
- 10% Rule: He introduces the '10% rule,' stating that if gas prices rise more than 10% in the three months before an election compared to January levels, it typically results in a shift in government control, compelling Trump to 'run the economy hot' without spiking fuel prices.
- Market Signals: Hayes emphasizes the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index as key market signals, warning that if yields approach 5% and volatility spikes, it could force policymakers to tighten stimulus, posing a threat to Bitcoin's liquidity expansion.
- Trading Strategy: He reveals that his firm Maelstrom is operating at maximum risk exposure for 2026, planning to continue accumulating Bitcoin while rotating capital into privacy-focused tokens and decentralized finance plays, aiming for superior returns amid credit expansion.
About the author
Ohris M. Greyoon
Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.
