Ross Stores Inc (ROST) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
Ross Stores Inc (ROST) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 05/22 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 5.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.43 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Ross Stores is anticipated to report earnings above expectations due to store expansions, tariff reductions, and consumer shifts favoring its market position.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data Analysis:
- Store Expansion & Traffic Growth: Ross Stores opened 19 new stores in March (16 Ross, 3 dd’s DISCOUNTS), accelerating physical growth. This supports revenue upside through expanded customer reach and market share gains.
- Tariff Reductions & Margin Tailwinds: The reduction of China tariffs (from 145% to 30%) lowers procurement costs for off-price retailers like Ross, improving gross margins and enabling sharper pricing to drive traffic. Analysts (Citi, Wells Fargo) highlight this as a key catalyst.
- Defensive Consumer Shift: Analysts note Ross is well-positioned as a "trade-down" beneficiary in a weakening macro environment (Goldman Sachs cites 45% recession risk). This could drive comparable store sales growth above muted expectations.
- Inventory Management: While inventory levels rose in Q4 (packaway strategy), new store openings provide an outlet to clear stock without markdowns, mitigating margin risk.
Key Risks:
Operating margins face pressure from wage inflation and tariff uncertainty (Barclays, Morgan Stanley).
High stock price (+10% vs. S&P 500) reflects elevated expectations, limiting upside surprise potential.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
Bullish Play:
- Buy $150 ATM calls (expiration post-earnings) to capitalize on potential upside from comps/margin beats.
- Pair with $145 puts (lower probability of a miss) for downside protection.
Neutral/Defensive Play:
- Sell iron condor (sell $155 call / buy $160 call; sell $140 put / buy $135 put) to profit from muted volatility and range-bound price action.
Rationale: The setup favors a "Beat" outcome but acknowledges high embedded expectations. Options pricing likely reflects optimism, making defined-risk strategies preferable.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
ROST Transcript
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive developments like store openings and strong comparable sales growth, the EPS guidance is lower than last year, and tariff costs impact profitability. The Q&A reveals cautious optimism with successful marketing and store refreshes but no plans to increase marketing spend. Overall, the company's strategic initiatives are promising, but financial guidance and tariff concerns temper expectations, leading to a neutral sentiment.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive developments: 5-7% sales growth, strategic store openings, and effective marketing campaigns. Despite EPS guidance below last year's figures, optimistic guidance and strong consumer engagement suggest a positive outlook. Tariff impacts are being mitigated, and the company is expanding in high-potential regions. The stock is likely to react positively, with a prediction of a 2% to 8% increase over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary indicates a positive outlook with flat to 3% growth in comparable store sales, a robust share repurchase program, and initiatives like store refreshes and self-checkout pilots. Despite tariff impacts, management is optimistic about mitigating these through strategic pricing and inventory management. The Q&A further supports this with positive insights on branded strategy, distribution center investments, and unit growth opportunities. While there are some uncertainties, the overall sentiment leans positive, likely leading to a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While there are positive aspects such as a share repurchase program and dividend increase, financial performance is moderate with flat EPS and operating margins. Challenges like tariffs, inflation, and supply chain issues create uncertainties. The Q&A section reveals management's cautious approach and limited visibility into future performance, especially concerning tariffs. Without strong guidance or new partnerships, and considering market uncertainties, the stock price is likely to remain stable in the short term, leading to a neutral sentiment.
ROST Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ross Stores Inc FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Ross Stores Inc (ROST) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report onMay 22, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Ross Stores Inc FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 5.00B in revenue and an EPS of 1.00 for Ross Stores Inc's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Ross Stores Inc FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forRoss Stores Inc's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of May 22, 2025. Ross Stores Inc Ross Stores is anticipated to report earnings above expectations due to store expansions, tariff reductions, and consumer shifts favoring its market position.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade ROST Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theMay 22, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Ross Stores Inc FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
