Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction
Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 08/07 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 15.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 5.61 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a beat driven by strong product demand, pipeline advancements, and regulatory successes, despite some risks like tariff threats.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Supporting Beat:
- Strong Product Demand & Market Share Gains:
Multiple analysts (Citi, JPMorgan) noted "very robust" Q2 demand for tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) and share gains vs. Novo Nordisk (NVO). JPMorgan highlighted "strong script growth" for Lilly’s weight-loss drugs.
Mounjaro sales in India surged 60% MoM in May 2025, indicating accelerating international adoption.
- Pipeline Catalysts:
Positive Phase 3 trial results for Kisunla (Alzheimer’s) demonstrating growing benefit over 3 years and amyloid plaque clearance.
Orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1, met primary endpoints in diabetes (ACHIEVE-1) and could disrupt the obesity market with its convenience advantage.
- Pricing & Access Tailwinds:
LillyDirect’s consumer-centric platform (highlighted by Citi) could drive volume growth for upcoming oral obesity drugs.
Zepbound pricing at $499/month for uninsured patients improves accessibility versus competitors.
- Regulatory Wins:
Donanemab (Alzheimer’s) received CHMP recommendation in Europe, expanding potential market access.
Medicare coverage for weight-loss drugs (starting 2026/2027) removes long-term reimbursement risks.
Risks:
Tariff Threats: Trump’s proposed pharmaceutical tariffs (as early as August 1) could pressure margins but likely not impact Q2 results.
Political Pressure on Drug Prices: Trump’s letters to pharma CEOs and potential MFN pricing rules create uncertainty but lack immediate enforcement.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
Directional Play:
- Buy shares or August 2025 $800 calls for upside exposure to a Beat. Lilly’s underperformance vs. S&P 500 (-6% vs. +11.6%) suggests low expectations.
Options Hedge:
- Sell August $750 puts to capitalize on elevated volatility (tariff fears) while collecting premium.
Pairs Trade: Long LLY / Short NVO: Lilly’s superior demand trends (per analyst data) and pipeline momentum favor relative outperformance.
Catalysts:
- August 7 earnings call focus on Zepbound script trends, oral GLP-1 timelines, and tariff mitigation plans.
- Medicare’s weight-loss drug coverage details (expected late 2025).
Earnings Surprise Analysis
LLY Transcript
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, strategic advancements, and positive market reception. Key highlights include raised revenue and EPS guidance, new trials and product launches, and a focus on market expansion. The management's responses in the Q&A were generally well-received, with analysts showing interest in the company's innovation and market strategies. Despite some vague responses, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by growth prospects and strategic initiatives.
LLY Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Eli Lilly and Co FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onAug 7, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Eli Lilly and Co FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 15.00B in revenue and an EPS of 6.00 for Eli Lilly and Co's FY2025Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Eli Lilly and Co FY2025Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forEli Lilly and Co's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Aug 7, 2025. Eli Lilly and Co The earnings forecast suggests a beat driven by strong product demand, pipeline advancements, and regulatory successes, despite some risks like tariff threats.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade LLY Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theAug 7, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Eli Lilly and Co FY2025Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
