Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) FY2025Q1 Earning Prediction

05/08 04:00:00

After Hours

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is set to release its FY2025Q1 earnings performance on 05/08 04:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 2.08B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.85 for the FY2025Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!

Estimate

Actual

Surprise

RevenueMISS

2.08B

2.03B

-2.11%

EPSBEAT

1.85

1.94

+4.86%

AI Summary

Attend Webcast

AI Earnings Prediction

Prediction for FY2025Q1

Earnings Date: May 8, 2025

The earnings forecast suggests a neutral outcome, with mixed factors influencing revenue and EPS projections.

Neutral

Last 0 quarters:

3 beats2 misses

Scenario Analysis

The AI analyzes the probability of each scenario occurring and identifies the triggering conditions.

Scenario

Prob.

Stock Reaction

Trigger Condition

Strong Beat

20%

+10–15%

Subscription revenue surges >20% QoQ + EPS beats by >$0.50.

Beat

30%

+3–5%

EPS beats on cost cuts, revenue meets consensus.

Neutral

30%

Flat

Revenue misses offset by EPS beat; guidance unchanged.

Miss

15%

-5–7%

Revenue misses >5% + soft Q2 crypto volume outlook.

Strong Miss

-10–12%

Both revenue/EPS miss + downgrades on institutional growth concerns.

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Key Indicators Forecast

The AI provides itemized forecasts for key indicators, potentially including revenue, EPS, gross margin, and free cash flow.

Revenue

EPS

Currency:

No data

Actual

Estimate

Metric

Prediction

Justification

Revenue

Miss

Transaction revenue (~70% of total) likely fell due to weaker crypto prices/volumes, offset partially by subscription growth (USDC, staking). Consensus ($2.16B) assumes stable trading activity, which conflicts with Q1 crypto market data.

EPS

Beat

Cost controls (hiring freeze, automation) and lower litigation expenses post-SEC dismissal could drive EPS above consensus ($2.23). Analysts raised EPS estimates +3.2% over 3 months.

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Prediction Logic & Rational

Logic & Justification

The Fact Data presents mixed signals:

Bearish Factors:

Declining Crypto Market Activity: Q1 saw an 18% drop in the total crypto market cap and 18% sequential decline in global exchange volumes (Citi, JPMorgan), directly impacting Coinbase’s transaction revenue.
Competitive Pressures: Partnerships like Binance-Circle threaten USDC adoption, while institutional growth is shifting to lower-margin segments (Compass Point).
Consumer Trading Slowdown: Crypto prices fell 15% YTD (Goldman Sachs), likely reducing retail engagement.

Bullish Factors:

Regulatory Tailwinds: SEC litigation dismissal and Trump’s pro-crypto policies (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, regulatory clarity) reduce systemic risks and could accelerate institutional adoption (Bernstein, Rosenblatt).
Subscription Growth: Expanded PayPal partnership (PYUSD), Base L2 adoption, and credit facilities (Riot Platforms, CleanSpark) support non-transactional revenue.
Cost Discipline: Analysts note operational efficiency improvements, which could protect margins despite revenue volatility.

Prediction Logic & Rational

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Trading Strategy

Options Play: Buy a May 10 straddle (long $200 call + put) to hedge binary volatility. IV is elevated (~80%) post-SEC news, but earnings could deflate premiums.
Stock: Avoid directional bets pre-earnings. Post-report, consider buying dips if management reiterates 2025 subscription growth >30% or announces Deribit acquisition.
Pairs Trade: Long COIN / Short MSTR (MicroStrategy’s beta to Bitcoin is higher, amplifying downside if crypto weakens further).

Rationale: Revenue headwinds are priced in (-28% stock decline since last earnings), but EPS resilience and regulatory optimism create asymmetric upside if guidance surprises.

Tactical Strategy Recommendations

Earnings Surprise Analysis

The chart displays the extent of earnings surprises and corresponding stock price movements for each earnings event.

Revenue

EPS

COIN Transcript

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents at 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference Transcript

Neutral12-13

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript

Neutral12-9

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Positive10-30

The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal positive indicators: strong Q3 revenue outlook, strategic investments due to regulatory clarity, and growth in subscription services. Partnerships with major institutions like JPMorgan and Shopify, as well as the integration of Deribit, bolster the sentiment. Although there are concerns about AWS outages and unclear responses on certain topics, the overall narrative is positive, with a focus on market expansion and product development. These factors suggest a likely positive stock price movement.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) Presents At Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (Transcript)

Neutral9-9

COIN Report

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-K

10-K

2025-02-13

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-10-30

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-08-01

Coinbase Global, Inc. 10-Q

10-Q

2024-05-02

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q1 earnings report onMay 8, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.

What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q1 Revenue and EPS?

Analysts' consensus predicts 2.08B in revenue and an EPS of 1.85 for Coinbase Global Inc's FY2025Q1.

What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q1 Earnings?

Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forCoinbase Global Inc's FY2025Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of May 8, 2025. Coinbase Global Inc The earnings forecast suggests a neutral outcome, with mixed factors influencing revenue and EPS projections.

How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade COIN Stock?

Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theMay 8, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.

How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Coinbase Global Inc FY2025Q1?

Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.

How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?

AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!

When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?

Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.

Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?

Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2024-2025 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!