Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market context, here's a concise analysis for AON stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing mixed signals with recent price action. After reaching a high of $314.17, AON has experienced some consolidation around the $313 level. The stock is trading above both its 60-day moving average ($371.34) and 200-day moving average ($339.95), indicating an overall bullish long-term trend.

Recent Performance & Valuation

• Current price: $313.34 (as of Feb 23, 2025)
• RSI (14): 61.92 - indicating neutral momentum without being overbought
• MACD shows positive momentum with a bullish signal (MACD: 6.85, Signal: 6.22)

Fundamental Catalysts

1. Strategic Acquisition: AON is acquiring NFP for $13.4B, which will:

• Expand presence in middle-market segment
• Expected to generate over $2.8B in value creation
• Initially dilutive to EPS in 2025, breakeven in 2026, and accretive from 2027

2. Financial Performance:

• Q4 2024 EPS of $4.42 beat expectations of $4.24
• Revenue slightly missed at $4.15B vs $4.19B forecast
• Strong client retention and new business expansion

Analyst Sentiment

The consensus among analysts is "Moderate Buy" with price targets ranging from $353 to $445, suggesting potential upside. Recent analyst actions include:

• BMO Capital: Lowered PT to $373 (Hold rating)
• Barclays: Maintains Buy rating with $440 PT

Recommendation

SELL. While AON has strong long-term prospects, several near-term headwinds exist:

1. Trading near technical resistance levels
2. Upcoming NFP acquisition integration risks
3. Expected EPS dilution in 2025
4. Currently trading at premium valuations compared to peers

Consider re-entering at lower levels around the 60-day moving average ($371) for better risk/reward.

Based on the provided data and references, I'll analyze AON's price prediction for 2025:

Technical Analysis & Current Trend

Price Target Analysis According to multiple analyst forecasts, AON's consensus price targets for 2025 show:

• Average target: $397.27
• High target: $445.00 (Wells Fargo)
• Low target: $353.00
• Current price: $389.56

Growth Catalysts

1. Healthcare Cost Trends

• U.S. employer healthcare costs projected to increase 9% in 2025
• This trend benefits AON as a major insurance broker providing health solutions
• GLP-1 medications driving additional 1% cost increase, creating more demand for AON's services

2. Business Performance

• Q4 2024 showed strong execution with 6% organic revenue growth
• Free cash flow of $2.8 billion in 2024
• Strong margins and double-digit EPS growth maintained

Risk Factors

1. Valuation Concerns

• Trading at higher multiples compared to industry peers
• BMO Capital lowered price target to $373 citing valuation concerns

2. Market Competition

• Intense competition in insurance brokerage sector
• Need to maintain technological edge and service quality

2025 Price Prediction

Based on analyst consensus and technical analysis:

• Base case: $397 (+2%)
• Bull case: $445 (+14%)
• Bear case: $353 (-9%)

Most likely scenario: Base case with 60% probability, reaching $397 by end of 2025, supported by:

• Consistent organic growth
• Strong cash flow generation
• Healthcare cost tailwinds
• Established market position

The S1 support level for AON Stock is $386.48 ,The R1 resistant level for AON Stock is $404.62.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-27, the price of AON Stock was $404.

The target price for AON Stock according to analyst rating is 408.42, with the highest price target at 445.00 and the lowest at 373.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on AON Stock overall.

The market cap of AON is $87.3B.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of AON's valuation:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $391, showing strong momentum with RSI at 61.92 and trading above both 50-day (371.34) and 200-day (339.95) moving averages. The stock is near its upper Bollinger Band (407.03), suggesting potential resistance ahead.

Valuation Metrics

AON appears to be moderately overvalued based on several key metrics:

1. Forward P/E of 23.27x is above industry average
2. EV/EBITDA of 14.02x indicates premium valuation
3. Price/Sales ratio of 4.46x suggests rich valuation for an insurance broker
4. Low dividend yield of 0.85% compared to peers

Financial Performance

• Revenue grew 7.2% YoY to $13.38B in 2023
• Net margin declined slightly to 19.65% from 21.20%
• Current ratio of 1.0 indicates adequate liquidity
• High debt levels with total debt of $11.23B

Recent Developments

• BMO Capital lowered price target to $373 from $380, citing expensive valuation relative to peers
• BofA raised target to $421 but maintains Underperform rating due to lower organic growth vs peers
• The NFP acquisition closed ahead of schedule, potentially creating integration opportunities

Conclusion

AON appears overvalued at current levels due to:

• Premium valuation multiples vs peers
• Declining margins
• High debt levels
• Lower organic growth compared to competitors
• Recent analyst concerns about valuation

Aon PLC is a global professional services company. The Company provides advice and solutions to clients focused on risk, health and wealth through four principal products and services: commercial risk solutions, reinsurance solutions, health solutions, and wealth solutions. Commercial Risk Solutions includes retail brokerage, specialty solutions, global risk consulting and captives’ management, and Affinity programs. Reinsurance Solutions includes treaty reinsurance, facultative reinsurance, and capital markets. Health Solutions includes consulting and brokerage, voluntary benefits and enrollment solutions, and human capital solutions. Wealth Solutions includes retirement consulting, pension administration, and investments consulting. Data & analytic services include Affinity, Aon Inpoint, CoverWallet, and ReView. Retirement consulting specializes in providing clients with strategic design consulting on their retirement programs, actuarial services, and risk management.

Based on the available data and analyst forecasts, here is the AON stock price prediction for 2030:

AON stock is projected to reach $514.38 by 2030, representing a 32% increase from the current price of $389.56. This forecast is supported by several key factors:

Growth Drivers:

• Strong market position in insurance brokerage industry which is expected to reach $524.8 billion by 2030 at 9.2% CAGR
• Increasing demand for cyber insurance and climate risk solutions
• Strategic focus on technology adoption and data analytics capabilities

Recent Analyst Views:

• Barclays maintains Buy rating with $440 price target
• BofA raised target to $421 citing stronger organic growth and margin expansion
• BMO Capital lowered target to $373 due to lower revenue estimates

Risk Factors:

• Challenges in attracting/retaining talent ranked as #2 risk
• Increasing competition in insurance brokerage space
• Regulatory changes and economic uncertainty

The prediction assumes AON successfully executes its strategy around:

• Expanding digital capabilities and data analytics
• Growing in emerging markets
• Capitalizing on increasing demand for risk management solutions

This long-term price target represents a balanced view considering both growth opportunities and potential headwinds. However, investors should note that long-term forecasts have inherent uncertainties and should be used as one of many factors in investment decisions.

AON has a total of 50000 employees.