Costco Shares Surge on Strong December Sales, Reinstated as Favorite
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 09 2026
0mins
Should l Buy COST?
Source: CNBC
- Market Performance: Stocks rose on Friday as investors rotated out of last year's AI winners into what Jim Cramer termed 'hopes spring eternal stocks', reflecting optimism about future growth prospects.
- Costco Sales Surge: Costco shares climbed again on strong December sales, having jumped 3.7% in the previous session, indicating robust consumer demand that could enhance membership renewal rates.
- GE Vernova Downgrade: Baird downgraded GE Vernova from buy to hold due to concerns over power overcapacity, although Jim Cramer highlighted strong nuclear power demand, which may influence future stock performance.
- Upcoming Earnings Reports: Next week, several banks will report earnings, with Wells Fargo set to announce on Wednesday and Goldman Sachs and BlackRock on Thursday, as the market closely watches these figures to assess economic health.
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Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 997.360
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
Current: 997.360
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Costco's Ten-Year Investment Returns Remarkable
- Investment Return Analysis: A $1,000 investment in Costco ten years ago would be worth $6,500 today, or $7,725 with reinvested dividends, showcasing its strong performance against the S&P 500 index.
- Sustained Growth Drivers: From fiscal 2020 to 2025, Costco's revenue and EPS grew at CAGRs of 10.5% and 15.1%, respectively, with warehouse count increasing from 795 to 914 and cardholders rising from 105.5 million to 140.6 million, demonstrating robust market expansion capabilities.
- Membership Renewal Challenges: Despite raising membership fees for the first time in 2024, Costco's global renewal rate dipped to 89.7% in the first half of fiscal 2026, primarily due to younger digitally signed members being more likely to cancel.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Costco's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 8% and 11% from 2025 to 2028, but with a current P/E ratio of 49, the stock may only rise 34% over the next decade.
See More
Target's 31% Stock Surge: Analyzing the Drivers
- Stock Surge: Target (TGT) has surged 31% over the past three months, contrasting with a 1.9% decline in the S&P 500, indicating a growing investor confidence in newly appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, despite the stock being down over 25% in the last three years.
- Sales Slowdown Challenges: Although Target's sales have significantly declined during the pandemic and operating margins have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, the company is working to attract consumers by enhancing in-store experiences and increasing digital sales channels, particularly under economic pressure.
- Strategic Investment Plans: The new CEO plans to open over 30 new stores this fiscal year and complete more than 130 full-store remodels, with capital expenditures set to increase by 25% compared to fiscal 2025, demonstrating the company's strong commitment to future growth.
- Dividend Stability: Target has raised its dividend for the 54th consecutive year to $1.14 per share quarterly, equating to an annual dividend of $4.56, and as a member of the 'Dividend Kings', it offers a 3.8% yield, providing a reliable income source for long-term investors.
See More
Target Reports Weak Results and 2026 Guidance Amid Spending Increase
- Weak Performance: Target's fiscal 2026 guidance indicates only 2% net sales growth, and despite a 31% stock price increase over the past three months, it remains down over 50% from its all-time high, reflecting market concerns about its recovery potential.
- Increased Spending Strategy: Amid weak consumer spending, Target plans to boost capital expenditures by 25% in fiscal 2026, opening over 30 new stores and completing more than 130 full-store remodels, aiming to enhance customer experience and drive sales.
- Dividend Stability: Target has raised its dividend for the 54th consecutive year to $1.14 per share, equating to an annual dividend of $4.56, indicating the company's ability to support its high-yield dividend from operations, appealing to long-term investors.
- Market Optimism: Despite uncertainties, the market reacts positively to new CEO Michael Fiddelke's strategic plan, believing it may help the company gradually return to growth, although it will take time to validate its effectiveness.
See More
Costco Faces Nationwide Class Action Lawsuit Over Tariff Refunds
- Lawsuit Background: Costco has become the subject of a nationwide class-action lawsuit due to charging customers higher prices before the Supreme Court nullified tariffs, filed by shopper Matthew Stockov, seeking refunds for tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
- Purpose of the Lawsuit: The plaintiff aims to have the court declare that Costco must return any tariff refunds it receives, noting that the retailer has not committed to refunding consumers who ultimately bore these costs, thereby preventing the company from achieving double recovery.
- Management Response: Costco CEO Ron Vachris stated in an analyst call that it remains unclear when businesses will be refunded the tariffs previously paid under IEEPA, and if refunds are received, the company plans to use the funds to lower prices and enhance customer value.
- Tariff Refund System: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced it is developing a new system to streamline tariff refunds, expected to be ready within 45 days, requiring minimal input from importers, assisting over 330,000 importers with more than 53 million tariff refund entries.
See More
Impact of Rising Gas Prices on Costco
- Widespread Impact of Gas Prices: Rising gas prices not only affect consumers at the pump but also increase costs for heating oil and propane, leading to higher electricity prices and broader economic implications.
- Costco's Unique Business Model: As one of the largest retailers in the U.S., Costco profits primarily from membership fees and sells goods at near-cost, leveraging its Kirkland private label to attract consumers, which allows for high product turnover despite lower margins.
- Positive Effects of High Gas Prices on Costco: Higher gas prices encourage consumers to fill up at Costco, increasing store traffic and boosting sales, as its bulk-selling model effectively draws customers even during price hikes.
- Historical Performance as a Benchmark: In 2022, during the spike in gas prices due to the Ukraine conflict, Costco reported a 10.4% increase in comparable sales, demonstrating resilience in high gas price environments and indicating that its business model is well-positioned to navigate current challenges.
See More
Costco Reports Strong Sales Growth in Q2 2026
- Significant Sales Growth: Costco achieved $68.31 billion in sales for Q2 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, with digital revenue soaring 22.6%, traffic up 32%, and average order value rising 15%, showcasing the effectiveness of personalized marketing strategies.
- Strong Same-Store Sales: Adjusted same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 6.4%, while Canadian same-store sales increased by 7.6% and international same-store sales rose by 7.1%, indicating robust performance across markets, particularly with double-digit growth in pharmacy and food court segments.
- Membership Revenue Growth: Membership fee revenue climbed 13.6% year-over-year to $1.36 billion, with paid memberships increasing by 4.8% to 82.1 million households, demonstrating success in membership management and customer loyalty.
- Ongoing Expansion Plans: Costco opened three new locations in the quarter and plans to open 18 more this fiscal year, totaling 28 new stores, bringing the global warehouse count to 924, with intentions to open over 30 new warehouses annually, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Costco's Ten-Year Investment Returns Remarkable
- Investment Return Analysis: A $1,000 investment in Costco ten years ago would be worth $6,500 today, or $7,725 with reinvested dividends, showcasing its strong performance against the S&P 500 index.
- Sustained Growth Drivers: From fiscal 2020 to 2025, Costco's revenue and EPS grew at CAGRs of 10.5% and 15.1%, respectively, with warehouse count increasing from 795 to 914 and cardholders rising from 105.5 million to 140.6 million, demonstrating robust market expansion capabilities.
- Membership Renewal Challenges: Despite raising membership fees for the first time in 2024, Costco's global renewal rate dipped to 89.7% in the first half of fiscal 2026, primarily due to younger digitally signed members being more likely to cancel.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Costco's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 8% and 11% from 2025 to 2028, but with a current P/E ratio of 49, the stock may only rise 34% over the next decade.
See More
Target's 31% Stock Surge: Analyzing the Drivers
- Stock Surge: Target (TGT) has surged 31% over the past three months, contrasting with a 1.9% decline in the S&P 500, indicating a growing investor confidence in newly appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, despite the stock being down over 25% in the last three years.
- Sales Slowdown Challenges: Although Target's sales have significantly declined during the pandemic and operating margins have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, the company is working to attract consumers by enhancing in-store experiences and increasing digital sales channels, particularly under economic pressure.
- Strategic Investment Plans: The new CEO plans to open over 30 new stores this fiscal year and complete more than 130 full-store remodels, with capital expenditures set to increase by 25% compared to fiscal 2025, demonstrating the company's strong commitment to future growth.
- Dividend Stability: Target has raised its dividend for the 54th consecutive year to $1.14 per share quarterly, equating to an annual dividend of $4.56, and as a member of the 'Dividend Kings', it offers a 3.8% yield, providing a reliable income source for long-term investors.
See More
Target Reports Weak Results and 2026 Guidance Amid Spending Increase
- Weak Performance: Target's fiscal 2026 guidance indicates only 2% net sales growth, and despite a 31% stock price increase over the past three months, it remains down over 50% from its all-time high, reflecting market concerns about its recovery potential.
- Increased Spending Strategy: Amid weak consumer spending, Target plans to boost capital expenditures by 25% in fiscal 2026, opening over 30 new stores and completing more than 130 full-store remodels, aiming to enhance customer experience and drive sales.
- Dividend Stability: Target has raised its dividend for the 54th consecutive year to $1.14 per share, equating to an annual dividend of $4.56, indicating the company's ability to support its high-yield dividend from operations, appealing to long-term investors.
- Market Optimism: Despite uncertainties, the market reacts positively to new CEO Michael Fiddelke's strategic plan, believing it may help the company gradually return to growth, although it will take time to validate its effectiveness.
See More
Costco Faces Nationwide Class Action Lawsuit Over Tariff Refunds
- Lawsuit Background: Costco has become the subject of a nationwide class-action lawsuit due to charging customers higher prices before the Supreme Court nullified tariffs, filed by shopper Matthew Stockov, seeking refunds for tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
- Purpose of the Lawsuit: The plaintiff aims to have the court declare that Costco must return any tariff refunds it receives, noting that the retailer has not committed to refunding consumers who ultimately bore these costs, thereby preventing the company from achieving double recovery.
- Management Response: Costco CEO Ron Vachris stated in an analyst call that it remains unclear when businesses will be refunded the tariffs previously paid under IEEPA, and if refunds are received, the company plans to use the funds to lower prices and enhance customer value.
- Tariff Refund System: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced it is developing a new system to streamline tariff refunds, expected to be ready within 45 days, requiring minimal input from importers, assisting over 330,000 importers with more than 53 million tariff refund entries.
See More
Impact of Rising Gas Prices on Costco
- Widespread Impact of Gas Prices: Rising gas prices not only affect consumers at the pump but also increase costs for heating oil and propane, leading to higher electricity prices and broader economic implications.
- Costco's Unique Business Model: As one of the largest retailers in the U.S., Costco profits primarily from membership fees and sells goods at near-cost, leveraging its Kirkland private label to attract consumers, which allows for high product turnover despite lower margins.
- Positive Effects of High Gas Prices on Costco: Higher gas prices encourage consumers to fill up at Costco, increasing store traffic and boosting sales, as its bulk-selling model effectively draws customers even during price hikes.
- Historical Performance as a Benchmark: In 2022, during the spike in gas prices due to the Ukraine conflict, Costco reported a 10.4% increase in comparable sales, demonstrating resilience in high gas price environments and indicating that its business model is well-positioned to navigate current challenges.
See More
Costco Reports Strong Sales Growth in Q2 2026
- Significant Sales Growth: Costco achieved $68.31 billion in sales for Q2 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, with digital revenue soaring 22.6%, traffic up 32%, and average order value rising 15%, showcasing the effectiveness of personalized marketing strategies.
- Strong Same-Store Sales: Adjusted same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 6.4%, while Canadian same-store sales increased by 7.6% and international same-store sales rose by 7.1%, indicating robust performance across markets, particularly with double-digit growth in pharmacy and food court segments.
- Membership Revenue Growth: Membership fee revenue climbed 13.6% year-over-year to $1.36 billion, with paid memberships increasing by 4.8% to 82.1 million households, demonstrating success in membership management and customer loyalty.
- Ongoing Expansion Plans: Costco opened three new locations in the quarter and plans to open 18 more this fiscal year, totaling 28 new stores, bringing the global warehouse count to 924, with intentions to open over 30 new warehouses annually, further solidifying its market position.
See More
