US Stock Market Outlook: Fed Officials Speak, AI Surge, TSMC Revenue Up 30%

Market Overview

On Thursday morning, major U.S. index futures showed stable movements around the flatline.

Tech Stocks Performance

Star tech stocks exhibited mixed results before the market opened, with AMD and NVIDIA rising over 1%, while Tesla fell more than 1%.

Chinese Stocks

Most popular Chinese stocks saw declines, although Bilibili surged nearly 6%, while Xpeng Motors dropped over 2%.

Rare Earth Stocks

U.S. rare earth stocks collectively strengthened, with United States Antimony rising nearly 10%, TMC Metals up over 8%, and others like USA Rare Earth and Critical Metals increasing over 6%.

Earnings Reports

TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 31.4% year-on-year increase in September revenue, totaling NT$330.98 billion. The third-quarter revenue also exceeded analyst expectations.

Other Notable Stocks

• Bilibili (BILI) rose nearly 6% ahead of the testing of "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card."
• UiPath (PATH) increased over 8% after announcing a partnership with OpenAI.
• Trilogy Metals (TMQ) gained over 6% as the U.S. government plans to acquire a 10% stake.
• Ferrari (RACE) fell nearly 14% due to lower-than-expected earnings forecasts.

Federal Reserve Insights

Interest Rate Outlook

Federal Reserve official Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts this year, citing stable inflation and a slight rise in unemployment. He emphasized that the U.S. economy is not in recession.

Fed Chair Candidates

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has completed interviews with 11 candidates for the next Fed Chair, with four frontrunners identified.

Market Sentiment

Goldman Sachs Analysis

Goldman Sachs noted that U.S. stocks have not shown signs of shifting to risk aversion, with buyers still entering the market.

JPMorgan Warning

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of significant correction risks in the U.S. stock market over the next 6 to 24 months, attributing it to the overheating from AI investment.

Economic Indicators

U.S. Budget Deficit

The U.S. federal budget deficit for FY2025 is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, with minimal changes from the previous year.

Employment Market

Data from U.S. banks indicate rising unemployment rates and slowing job growth, suggesting a challenging labor market.

Commodity Market

Gold and Silver Prices

Gold prices have surged, recently surpassing $4,000 per ounce, with predictions of reaching $4,900 by the end of 2026. Silver prices are also climbing, nearing the $50 mark.

New App Launch

OpenAI's video generation app Sora has surpassed ChatGPT in downloads during its first week, indicating strong user acceptance.

Upcoming Events

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at a community banking conference.
• Weekly jobless claims data will be released.

This summary encapsulates the key financial movements and insights from the market, highlighting significant stock performances and economic indicators.